[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280923
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Apr 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: In response to a trough of low
pressure extending near Morocco and high pressure north of the
Canary Islands, gale-force N-NE winds will occur in the Meteo-
France forecast area of Agadir. A gale warning is in effect for
Agadir through 03Z tonight. Seas of 8 to 12 ft can be expected in
the Agadir area. For details please read the High Seas Forecast
issued by Meteo-France at website http:///weather.gmdss.org/II.html

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
at the border of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W to 05N22W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to the northern coast of Brazil near
00N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 02N to 05N between 20W and 29W, and from 00N to 03N between
44W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from 22N93W to
near the western border of Guatemala with Mexico. Scattered
showers are possible near the trough in the Bay of Campeche.
Otherwise, a weak ridge of high pressure and weak pressure
pattern prevail across the basin. Gentle to moderate winds
dominate, locally fresh west-northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the NE Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will build into the region
through the end of the week and into the weekend. Winds will
increase slightly this weekend into early next week as the
pressure gradient across the region tightens.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant moisture and divergence aloft is producing scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection over the SW Caribbean Sea,
mainly south of 13N and west of 75W. Similar convection is noted
along and offshore portions of the coast of Venezuela. Fresh NE
winds are observed in the Windward Passage, with fresh to strong
offshore of the southern Dominican Republic, and in the south-
central Caribbean offshore of northern Colombia. Moderate to
locally fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except gentle to moderate
in the NW Caribbean, and light to gentle just offshore of
northern Panama and Costa Rica. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the south-
central Caribbean, with seas around 8 ft in NE swell filtering
through the Mona and Anegada Passages. Seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail
in the NW Caribbean, with 3 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure positioned north of the Caribbean
Sea will continue to sustain pulsing fresh to locally strong NE
to E winds across the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola
during the next few days. Similar conditions will occur this
morning near the northern coast of Colombia. Otherwise, moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail, except gentle winds
in the SW Caribbean. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are
forecast in the SW Caribbean today. Northerly swell will propagate
through Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through the end of
the week. A surge of wind will accompany a trough that will move
through the eastern to central Caribbean this weekend into early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
a Gale Warning in the Agadir area of Meteo-France.

A cold front from just west of Bermuda to near Cocoa Beach,
Florida. Isolated weak showers are observed along the frontal
boundary, with scattered thunderstorms and frequent lightning
having recently developed near the western tail of the front from
Cape Canaveral, Florida offshore. Fresh N to NE winds are
observed behind the front. A 1018 mb high pressure area is
centered southeast of the front near 26.5N70.5W. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are near the high, with gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds elsewhere west of 55W, locally fresh south of
18N. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail west of 65W and northeast of the
Bahamas in NE swell.

In the central Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N33W to
19N46W. A reinforcing trough is west of the front, from 31N38W to
24N44W to 21N57W, with another trough analyzed southwest of the
front from 16N44W to 13N60W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible southeast of the front and along and
near the southern trough, and also north of 29N and east of 43W
near the northern trough. Fresh to near gale-force winds are
occurring north of 22N between roughly 28W and 48W. A large area
of northerly swell with seas of 8 ft spreads across the waters
north of 19N between 28W and 65W. Seas are peaking around 15 ft
near 31N41W. A ridge extends from high pressure north of the
Canary Islands southwest through 31N21W to 19N38W. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted within 120-180 nm on either side of the
ridge axis. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the
open tropical Atlantic, except moderate to fresh N-NE from 10N to
20N between Africa and 30W, and fresh to strong from 20N to 30N
between Africa and 22W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the waters away
from the area of larger northerly swell, except locally to 8 ft
offshore of Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move
southeastward across the forecast waters while weakening through
the end of the week. Associated seas of 8 ft or greater will
propagate south of 31N tonight, shifting east-southeast north of
28N through the weekend. Fresh N winds are expected behind the
front. Seas of 8 ft or greater in N to NE swell east of 67W will
continue today, subsiding by the end of the week. A trough is
expected to move northwestward into the waters south of 22N and
east of 70W this weekend into early next week.

$$
Lewitsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net