[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280401
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Apr 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EAST-ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: In response to a trough of low
pressure in Morocco, gale force NW winds will develop Thu morning
offshore Morocco and prevail through at least Thu night, over the
Agadir region. For details, please read the High Seas Forecast
issued by Meteo-France at website
http:///weather.gmdss.org/II.html

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends from
05N21W to the northern coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Convection is
weak and isolated.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The stationary front has dissipated tonight leaving a high
pressure ridge to dominate the pattern. A surface trough in the
Bay of Campeche is causing isolated weak convection in the SW
Gulf. Winds are gentle to moderate across the basin with 2-4 ft
seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will build into the region
through the end of the week into the weekend. Winds will increase
slightly this weekend into early next week as the pressure
gradient across the region tightens.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant moisture and divergence aloft is producing scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection over the SW Caribbean Sea, mainly S
of 13N and W of 76W. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are observed in
the Windward Passage, offshore Colombia, and south of the DR.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the eastern and
central Caribbean while gentle to moderate easterlies dominate the
NW basin. Seas are 5-7 ft across the majority of the basin, with
3-5 ft seas dominating the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure positioned north of the Caribbean
Sea will continue to sustain pulsing fresh to locally strong NE
to E winds across the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola
during the next few days. Similar conditions will occur tonight
near the northern coast of Colombia. Otherwise, moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds will prevail, except gentle winds in
the SW Caribbean. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are forecast
in the SW Caribbean into Thu. Northerly swell will move into
Atlantic waters and through Caribbean passages through the end of
the week. A surge of wind will accompany a trough that will move
through the eastern to central Caribbean this weekend into early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
developing Gale conditions NE of the Canary Islands.

A cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N72W to
near Daytona Beach, Florida. Isolated weak showers are observed
along the frontal boundary. fresh NE winds are observed behind
the front with gentle to moderate conditions ahead of the
boundary. Seas are 4-6 ft west of 70W and 6-8 ft between 65W-70W.

In the central Atlantic, a frontal boundary extends from 31N32W
to 16N55W. A large area of fresh to strong cyclonic winds are
observed behind the front, with fresh to strong southerlies ahead
of the front. These winds are generating a large area of 12-16 ft
seas from 36W to 58W extending as far south as 25N. Seas in excess
of 8 ft seas are observed from 28W to 65W, extending as far south
as 16N. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds are
increasing along the Moroccan and Western Saharan coasts,
generating rough seas NE of the Canary Islands. Winds are moderate
or less across the remainder of the basin with seas less than 8
ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic cold front
will move southeastward across the forecast waters while
weakening through the end of the week. Associated seas of 8 ft or
greater will propagate south of 31N Thu night, shifting east-
southeast north of 28N through the weekend. Fresh N winds are
expected behind the front. Seas of 8 ft or greater in N to NE
swell east of 67W will continue through Thu before subsiding by
the end of the week. A trough is expected to move northwestward
into the waters south of 22N and east of 70W this weekend into
early next week.

$$
Flynn
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