[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Apr 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A series of cold fronts and troughs will
move across the central Atlantic this week. Winds will reach
gale-force strength in the vicinity of the front beginning
tonight at 00Z and continue through Tue at 18Z, with southerly
gale-force winds then developing north of 25N and ahead of the
front Tue 18Z through 12Z Wed. The area affected will be mainly
north of 25N between 35W and 65W. Seas in this area will range
between 8 to 16 ft. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 00N30W to
00N40W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
noted south of the monsoon trough from the equator to 05N
between 10W and 22W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is also noted from 08S to the equator between 10N16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging continues to extend across the southeastern United
States allowing for moderate return flow across most of the Gulf
waters, except moderate to fresh west of 90W and within the
Straits of Florida. Recent altimeter and buoy data reveal 6 ft
seas in the western basin, 4 to 5 ft seas in the central and
south-central basin, and mainly 3 ft seas elsewhere. Haze and
reduced visibilities due to ongoing agricultural fires in
portions of Mexico and northern Central America continue across
the western Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will sustain moderate to fresh E to
SE flow through tonight. Winds will pulse between fresh and
strong offshore N of the Yucatan Peninsula and W Cuba early
tonight and Tue night. A cold front will enter the N Gulf Tue
afternoon and then weaken across the central Gulf through Wed.
Afterward, high pressure will return toward the weekend. Hazy
conditions are possible over the W Gulf and Bay of Campeche
today due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An east to west surface trough extends from NW Colombia to the
Costa Rica and Panama border. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible near the trough. A mid-level low
centered over western Cuba is enhancing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the basin north of 13N between 80W
and 84W. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are pulsing in the immediate
lee of Cuba, south of Jamaica, south of Hispaniola, and in the
south-central Caribbean offshore of northern Colombia. Moderate
to fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except light and variable in
the SW Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the central Caribbean, and
3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea
will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E
winds in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola, and
near the coast of Colombia nighttime through the week. Otherwise,
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail, except
gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Periodic showers and
thunderstorms are expected S of Cuba, near Jamaica and Haiti
through this evening. Northerly swell may move into the Tropical N
Atlantic waters by the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning currently in effect for the central Atlantic.

High pressure centered near 32N77W is supporting gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow over the western Atlantic, north of
the Bahamas. Recent scatterometer data found moderate to fresh E
winds over the central and southern Bahamas to N of Cuba.

Farther east, a cold front extends across the central Atlantic
from 31N43W to 24N57W where it begins to dissipate to the west
along 24N. Fresh NE to E winds are behind the boundary east of
60W, and moderate to fresh S winds are ahead of the boundary
north of 23N and west of 38W. A reinforcing cold front is
pushing south of 31N with fresh to strong NE noted in recent
scatterometer imagery north of 29N between 50W and 67W. Seas of
8 to 12 ft in NW-N swell are accompanying the winds. Elsewhere,
a weak pressure pattern prevails across most of the remainder of
the tropical Atlantic with a 1017 mb high pressure area near
22N27W, allowing for gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft seas
to prevail. A cold front is located over the western Canary
Islands from 30N16W to 24N19W and is supporting moderate NE
winds north of 27N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the reinforcing cold front will
reach 26N late tonight, while several reinforcing troughs move
across the waters east of 70W in the wake of the front. Winds
will increase and seas will build with each passing trough, and
winds are forecast to reach gale-force north of 29N and east of
65W this evening, shifting south-southeast through early Tue.
Meanwhile, high pres will prevail W of 70W through Tue night. A
cold front will move offshore of N Florida early Wed, slowly
sagging south while weakening through the end of the week.

$$
Mora
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