[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250915
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Apr 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A serious of cold fronts and troughs will
move across the central Atlantic this week. Winds will reach gale-
force strength in the vicinity of the front beginning tonight at
00Z and continue through Tue at 18Z, with southerly gale-force
winds then developing north of 25N and ahead of the front Tue 18Z
through 12Z Wed. The area affected will be mainly north of 25N
between 35W and 65W. Seas in this area will range between 8 to 16
ft. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N34W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Numerous moderate and scattered
strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N east of 20W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01S to 05N
between 20W and 37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
00N to 04N between 37W and 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging continues to extend across the southeastern United States
with mainly moderate to fresh return flow across the Gulf waters,
except fresh to strong northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft across the western Gulf, and 4 to 6 ft across the
eastern Gulf. Haze and reduced visibilities due to ongoing
agricultural fires in portions of Mexico and northern Central
America continue across the western Gulf, with the addition of
patchy fog possible offshore of Texas and SW Louisiana.

For the forecast, a ridge over the southeastern United States
will maintain moderate to fresh E-SE flow today and tonight,
except winds will pulse to fresh to strong offshore of the
Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba early today, tonight, and Tue
night. A cold front will drop across the northern Gulf Tue and
wash out over the central portion through Wed. High pressure will
return for the end of the week. Hazy conditions are possible over
the western Gulf due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An east to west surface trough extends from NW Colombia to the
Costa Rica and Panama border. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible near the trough. Deep convection is
noted across much of Colombia and portions of southern Venezuela.
A mid-level low centered near western Cuba is enhancing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the basin north of 15N
between 70W and 84W, including over Cuba, Haiti, and Jamaica.
Fresh to strong NE-E winds are pulsing in the immediate lee of
Cuba, across the approach to the Windward Passage, south of
Hispaniola, and in the south-central Caribbean offshore of
northern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh
trades prevail elsewhere, except light and variable in the SW
Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3 to 5
ft elsewhere, except 2 to 4 ft in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean
Sea will support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in
the immediate lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola
and near the coast of Colombia through the week. Otherwise,
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail, except
gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Northerly swell may move into
the Tropical N Atlantic waters by the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning currently in effect for the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N46W to
26N55W to 25N65W, while a reinforcing cold front is pushing south
of 31N. Scattered showers are possible near the fronts. Fresh to
strong winds are noted north of 29N west of the leading front to
60W or so. Seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW-N swell is accompanying the
winds. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of 25N between
40W and 65W. High pressure is centered west of Bermuda near
32N70W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are south of 27N and west of
70W, locally strong near the Windward Passage and Straits of
Florida. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are found elsewhere
west of 65W. A weak pressure pattern prevails across most of the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic with an unimpressive 1015 mb
low pressure area near 25N42W, and a sympathetic 1016 mb high
pressure area near 22N31W. A surface trough is located just west
of the Canary Islands from 31N19W to 23N24W. These features are
supporting gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft seas across the
open tropical Atlantic waters, locally 8 ft offshore of Africa to
22W from 10N to 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front from 26N55W to
25N65W will reach 20N by mid-week, while several reinforcing
troughs or fronts move across the waters east of 70W in the wake
of the front. Winds will increase and seas will build with each
passing trough, and winds are forecast to reach gale-force north
of 29N and east of 65W Mon evening, shifting south-southeast
through early Tue. Meanwhile, high pres will prevail west of 70W
through Tue night. A cold front will move offshore of northern
Florida early Wed, slowly sagging south while weakening through
the end of the week.

$$
Lewitsky
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