[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252209
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Apr 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A series of cold fronts and troughs will
move across the central Atlantic this week. Winds will reach
gale-force strength in the vicinity of the front beginning
tonight at 00Z and continue through Tue at 15Z, with southerly
gale-force winds then developing north of 25N and ahead of the
front Tue 18Z through 09Z Wed. The area affected will be mainly
north of 25N between 35W and 65W. Seas in this area will range
between 8 to 16 ft. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 00N30W to
00N40W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
noted south of the monsoon trough from 04S to 05N E of 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging continues to extend across the southeastern United
States allowing for moderate return flow across most of the Gulf
waters, except fresh winds in the Florida Straits and within 120
nm of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft, with 2 to
4 ft seas dominating the NE Gulf. No significant convection is
occurring in the basin. Haze and reduced visibilities due to
ongoing agricultural fires in portions of Mexico and northern
Central America continue across the western Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will sustain moderate to fresh E to
SE flow through tonight. Winds will pulse between fresh and strong
offshore N of the Yucatan Peninsula and W Cuba early this evening
and Tue evening. A cold front is expected to enter the N Gulf Tue
evening and then weaken across the central Gulf through Wed.
Afterward, high pressure will return toward the weekend. Hazy
conditions remain possible over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche
early this evening due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An east to west surface trough extends from the far SW Caribbean N
of Panama to the Costa Rica and Panama border. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the vicinity of this trough. Fresh NE to E
trades are ongoing in the Windward Passage, S of Cuba, S of
Hispaniola, S of Jamaica, and offshore N Colombia. Moderate to
fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except light and variable in the
SW Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3
to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea
will support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the
lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola and near the coast
of Colombia during the night through Wed night. Otherwise,
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail, except
gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Periodic showers and
thunderstorms are expected S of Cuba, near Jamaica and Haiti
through Tue evening. Northerly swell may move into the Tropical N
Atlantic waters by the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning currently in effect for the central Atlantic.

High pressure centered near 32N75W is supporting gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow over the western Atlantic, north of
the Bahamas, with moderate to fersh E winds over the central and
southern Bahamas to N of Cuba.

Farther east, a cold front extends across the central Atlantic
from 31N41W to 24N57W. Fresh to strong N winds are behind the
boundary, and moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the
boundary north of 23N and west of 38W. A reinforcing cold front is
located from 31N46W to 27N55W to 31N67W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft in
NW-N swell are accompanying the winds. Elsewhere, a weak
pressure pattern prevails across most of the remainder of the
tropical Atlantic with a 1016 mb high pressure area near 22N28W,
allowing for gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft seas to
prevail. A cold front cold front moving through the Canary Ilsands
is inducing moderate to fresh N winds N of 27N.

For the forecast west of 55W, a reinforcing cold front from
31N46W to 28N54W to 31N64W will reach 26N late tonight, causing
winds and seas to build across the central Atlantic. Winds are
forecast to reach gale-force north of 29N and east of 64W this
evening, shifting south-southeast through Tue morning. Meanwhile,
high pressure will prevail W of 70W through Tue night. A cold
front will move offshore of N Florida early Wed, slowly sagging
south while weakening through the end of the week.

$$
Konarik
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