[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201623
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Apr 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning off Morocco: A tight pressure gradient between
strong high pressure of 1032 mb centered near the Azores and lower
pressures over northwestern Africa supports gale force winds,
with severe gusts, across the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya
in the Meteo- France area of responsibility. These conditions are
forecast to continue to at least 21/09 UTC, through early Thu
morning. An earlier ASCAT pass showed N winds of 35-40 kt in the
area. Seas are likely 12-14 ft in the area of gales. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 11N15W and extends to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from
05N20W to 00N28W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02S to 00N
between 21W and 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to the south-
central Gulf near 23N92W. 1032 mb high pressure centered north of
the front over the Carolinas is supporting moderate to fresh E to
SE winds across the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft over the northeast
Gulf, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. A mid level trough is supporting a
few showers off south Texas, but generally fair skies prevail
elsewhere. A few observations in the Mexican state of Veracruz are
reporting moderate visibility in haze and smoke, due in part to
agricultural fires over southern Mexico. Fires over the Yucatan
Peninsula are likely reducing visibility in the southwest Gulf,
and possibly into the northwest Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate
through Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will continue over most of
the Gulf through this afternoon. Patchy smoke produced by
agricultural fires in Mexico will reduce visibility in the Bay of
Campeche through late this afternoon. Thereafter, a strengthening
high over the Mid- Atlantic States will cause pulsing fresh to
strong easterly winds over the eastern and south- central Gulf
tonight through Fri night, including the Straits of Florida and
areas near the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds
should dominate the entire Gulf for the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level trough reaches from off northeast Florida to
the Gulf of Honduras. An associated surface trough extends from
the western Atlantic to across Haiti. Abundant moisture, fresh to
strong trade winds, and divergent flow aloft on the southeast
side of the trough altogether continue to support clusters of
showers across the north central Caribbean and over Hispaniola
where locally heavy rainfall and possible localized flooding is
possible. Generally fair skies prevail elsewhere.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted west of the surface trough
over the northwest Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to
fresh E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are observed over the eastern
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds 2 to 4 ft seas evident
over the south-central Caribbean.

For the forecast, the showers over the north-central Caribbean
will gradually diminish through late week as trough weakens.
Building high pressure north of the area will support persistent
fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas across the far northwest
Caribbean through Sat. Expect gentle to moderate E winds and 3 to
5 ft seas elsewhere by Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
the East Atlantic Gale Warning.

A cold front extends from 31N66W to near Nassau, Bahamas where it
transitions to a stationary front and continues to the Florida
Keys. This is related to a mid-upper level trough reaching from
off the Carolinas to the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong NE
winds are evident west of the front with 6 to 9 ft seas over open
waters. A surface trough is ahead of the front reaching from
28N66W to northern Haiti. Scattered showers are noted within 120
nm east of the trough. Recent scatterometer data and a report from
the NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer indicated fresh to strong trade
winds south of 22N to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
Buoy reports show seas to be 5 to 7 ft in this region.

Farther east, 1015 mb low pressure is noted near 27N36W. Fresh to
strong winds are noted north of the low with 9 to 11 ft seas.
Elsewhere moderate to fresh easterly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are
evident north of 24N east of 40W, except for the gale conditions
off Morocco. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
are evident across the remainder of the area.

For the forecast west of 55W, the mid- to upper-level trough
will continue to enhance showers and thunderstorms through
tonight between 65W and the SE Bahamas. The cold front will reach
from Bermuda to the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida by
this afternoon, where it will stall before retreating slightly NW
Thu and dissipating Fri. Fresh to strong NE winds and building
seas will develop NW of the front this morning and persist through
at least Thu night. Strong winds will pulse again in the Straits
on Florida Fri night. Winds and seas will diminish over the
weekend.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net