[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Apr 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning off Morocco: A tight pressure gradient between
strong high pressure of 1032 mb centered over the Azores and
lower pressures over northwestern Africa supports gale force
winds, with severe gusts, across the marine zones of Agadir and
Tarfaya in the Meteo-France area of responsibility. These
conditions are forecast to continue to at least 21/09 UTC.
An earlier ASCAT pass confirmed the presence of gale force winds
in the area. Seas are likely 12-14 ft within the area of gales.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France
at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Guinea near 10N14W and continues SW to near 05N18W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N18W to 02N30W to 01N40W to the coast of Brazil
near 00N49W. Convection is limited. However, clusters of moderate
to strong convection are over Brazil near the western end of the
ITCZ axis.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered over the Carolinas extends a ridge across
Florida and the Gulf of Mexico while a stationary front extends
across the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf. The high pressure
is producing fresh to locally strong E to SE winds across most of
the Gulf region. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over the NW waters, and 4 to
6 ft elsewhere, except across the coastal waters of W Florida,
and along the coast of the Mexican states from Campeche to
Veracruz. A few observations in the Mexican state of Veracruz
were reporting moderate visibility in haze and smoke, due in part
to agricultural fires over southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will gradually
dissipate through Thu. A strengthening high over the Mid-Atlantic
States will produce pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds over
the E and S central Gulf tonight through Sat afternoon, including
the Straits of Florida and areas near the Yucatan Peninsula.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds should dominate the entire Gulf
by Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper-level trough reaches from off northeast Florida to
the NW Bahamas into the Gulf of Honduras. An associated surface
trough extends from the western Atlantic near 28N66W to across
Haiti. Abundant low-level moisture, combined with a diffluence
pattern aloft on the southeast side of the trough continues to
support showers, with embedded thunderstorms over Hispaniola and
regional waters, and also over eastern Cuba where locally heavy
rainfall, with localized flooding is possible. For example, Las
Tunas in eastern Cuba reported this morning 82.1 mm (3.2 inches)
of rain during the last 24 hours. The upper-level trough will
shift eastward over the next 48 hours keeping the likelihood of
showers and thunderstorms across the same area.

Scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally strong NE winds in
the lee of Cuba. A broad cyclonic circulation is over the SW
Caribbean where mainly gentle winds prevail. Gentle to moderate
trades are elsewhere, with the exception of moderate to fresh SE
winds near and S of La Mona Island. These winds are on the E side
of the above mentioned surface trough. Seas are generally 3 to 5
ft across the basin, except 5-6 ft in the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the weakening stationary front across the
Florida Straits and N of the Yucatan Channel should maintain
fresh NE winds across the NW Caribbean, and pulses of strong NE
winds just S of Cuba through Fri evening. Afterward, high
pressure building over the SE U.S. might sustain moderate to
fresh easterly winds through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
the East Atlantic Gale Warning.

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to 27N70W where it transitions
to a stationary front and continues over Nassau in the Bahamas to
the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong NE winds are evident west
of the front, with 6 to 9 ft seas over open waters. A surface
trough is ahead of the front reaching from 28N66W to northern
Haiti. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms are noted
within about 120 nm east of the trough. Recent scatterometer data
indicated fresh to strong trade winds south of 22N to the north
of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Buoy reports show seas to be 5 to
7 ft in this region.

Farther east, a weak low pressure of 1015 mb persists over the
eastern Atlantic near 27N37W. Fresh to strong winds are noted
north of the low with 9 to 11 ft seas. Similar wind speeds are
seen between the Canary Islands. Elsewhere moderate to fresh
easterly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are evident north of 24N east
of 40W, except for the gale conditions off Morocco. Gentle to
moderate easterly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident across the
remainder of the area.

For the forecast west of 55W, the mid to upper-level trough
previously mentioned will continue to enhance showers and
thunderstorms roughly between 60W and 70W, including also the
Turks and Caicos Islands over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, the
stationary front is expected to retreat slightly NW Thu before
dissipating on Fri. This feature will sustain fresh to strong NE
winds and higher seas across the W Atlantic through Fri evening.
Strong winds will pulse in the Florida Straits during this period.
Winds and seas in this area should diminish this weekend. A
late-season cold front might bring strong to near-gale winds and
rough seas to the central Atlantic early next week.

$$
GR
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