[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Apr 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: A tight pressure gradient between strong
high pressure of 1032 mb centered near the Azores and lower
pressures over northwestern Africa supports gale force winds,
with severe gusts, across the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya
in the Meteo-France area of responsibility. These conditions are
forecast to continue to at least 21/09 UTC, through early Thu
morning. An earlier ASCAT pass showed N winds of 35-40 kt in the
area. Seas are likely 12-15 ft in the area of gales. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 11N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to
01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm on either side
of the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near
24.5N81W to 22N89W to 24N95W. Fresh E winds prevail over the
eastern Gulf. Fresh SE winds are occurring over the western Gulf.
Seas range from 4-7 ft, highest over the central and west-central
Gulf. Isolated to scattered showers are noted over the NW and
west-central Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate
through Thu. Fresh winds will continue over most of the Gulf this
morning. Thereafter, a strengthening high over the Mid-Atlantic
States will cause pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds over the
eastern and south-central Gulf tonight through Fri night,
including the Straits of Florida and areas near the Yucatan
Peninsula. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds should dominate the
entire Gulf for the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level trough has reflected at the surface
enhancing convection over Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea
between 68W-78W. Abundant moisture will persist over this area
through tonight, supporting locally heavy rainfall and possible
localized flooding for portions of eastern Cuba, Jamaica and
Hispaniola.

Fresh NE winds are noted over the NW Caribbean, mainly N of 18N.
Scatterometer data indicates that the Colombia low has moved
northward and is centered over water near 14N77W. Gentle winds
prevail near the low. Farther E, moderate to fresh trades are over
the E Caribbean, where seas are 4-6 ft. Seas are 4-5 ft in the NW
Caribbean, except up to 6 ft in the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 3-4
ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a stationary front extending from the Straits of
Florida westward to well north of the Yucatan Channel will remain
north of the basin through Thu evening. This will bring fresh NE
winds across the NW Caribbean through the remainder of the week.
Pulses of strong winds are expected across the waters S of Cuba
at night, tonight through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
the East Atlantic Gale Warning.

A cold front extends from 31N68W to 27N73W to the Straits of
Florida near 24.5N81W. A pre-frontal surface trough extending from
29N68W to the N coast of Haiti is currently the focal point for
scattered moderate convection, which is being enhanced by a mid-
to upper-level trough in the area. This shower activity is
occurring between 63W-73W from Hispaniola to 31N. Fresh N to NE
winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are along and to the NW of the cold
front.

To the east, a 1015 mb low is spinning near 27N35W along a
surface trough that extends from 31N34W to 20N36W. A well-defined
swirl of mainly low clouds and a few showers is related to the
low. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the
influence of a 1032 mb high pressure located near the Azores. Due
to the gradient between the 1015 mb low and the 1032 mb high,
strong E winds are occurring in the northern semicircle of the low
pressure with seas of 10-12 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a mid- to upper-level trough will
continue to enhance showers and thunderstorms through tonight
between 63W and the SE Bahamas. A cold front extending from
31N68W to 27N73W to the Straits of Florida will reach from
Bermuda to the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida by this
afternoon, where it will stall before retreating slightly NW Thu
and dissipating Fri. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas
will develop NW of the front this morning and persist through at
least Thu night. Strong winds will pulse again in the Straits of
Florida Fri night. Winds and seas will diminish over the weekend.

$$
Hagen
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