[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151652
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Apr 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Sierra-Leone near 09N13W and extends to 04N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N17W to 01S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N east of 15W.
Scattered moderate convection is also present south of the ITCZ
west of 35W to the northeast Brazilian coast.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf from Mexico
Beach, Florida to southeast Louisiana. A surface trough is
analyzed in the southwest Gulf from 23N93W to 19N94W. No
significant convection is observed with either of the
aforementioned features. Satellite imagery reveals a large area
of light to moderate density smoke covering the mainly the
western half of the Gulf, to the Bay of Campeche, and portions
of the Central Gulf. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico
could reduce visibility, mainly in the W Gulf. Otherwise, a weak
pressure gradient in place across the region is supporting
gentle to moderate E to SE winds. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the far
eastern Gulf and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the above mentioned stationary front will lift
north and inland today. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow
will dominate most of the basin late today through Sun. A cold
front will move into the NW Gulf Mon and stall over the northern
Gulf through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds persist off the coast of Colombia,
between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower
pressure over northern South America. Seas are reaching 8 to 11
ft in this area. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft prevail
elsewhere. No significant showers or thunderstorms are evident.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
located just SE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will
continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-
central Caribbean through tonight. Fresh east to southeast winds
will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras this evening
through tonight. A N to S aligned trough is forecast to develop
along 74W-75W from the N coast of Colombia across the SE Bahamas
early Mon through late Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered southeast of Bermuda near
30N61W. To the west of the high pressure center, numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed between 74W
and a surface trough that is analyzed from 31N78W to near Cape
Canaveral, Florida. Over the central Atlantic, a weak cold front
is analyzed from 31N34W. East of the front, a trough extends
from 30N31W to 26N37W, where it devolves into a shearline to
21N70W. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of the
trough north of 27N to 25W and along the shearline from 19N to
21N between 56W and 70W. Satellite derived winds reveal fresh NE
to E winds between the shearline and 23N, west of 52W. Seas to 8
ft are also within this area.  NW swell to 8 to 10 ft is evident
in this morning's altimeter pass north of 27N between 35W and
50W. Elsewhere west of 35W, gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5
ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the shearline will remain nearly
stationary along 20N through tonight then begin to drift N on
Sat. A band of fresh to strong NE to E winds, with seas to 9 ft
will persist south of 24N through the upcoming weekend as a high
pressure center remains in the vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold
front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast this morning and
become stationary off northeast Florida tonight. An associated
upper level trough across the NW waters this morning will move E-
SE through the weekend and support very active weather across
the Bahamas ahead of it. A sharp trough is expected to develop
from the Windward Passage northward across the SE Bahamas along
74W early Mon. Low pressure is expected to develop along the
trough near 26N73W Mon night, and shift N-NE and exit the region
Tue evening.

$$
Nepaul
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