[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Apr 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Guinea near 11N15W to 07N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from
05N20W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted form 00N to 06N east of 12W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident within 60 nm north of the ITCZ west of 35W.
and continues to 04N19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front from the western Florida
Panhandle to southeast Louisiana, then continues as a warm front
to the central Texas coast. A weak pressure pattern is in place
across the region, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds.
Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the far eastern Gulf and 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere. A trough over the Florida peninsula is supporting a few
showers off Sarasota Florida.

For the forecast, the front will lift north of the
basin later today. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow will
dominate most of the basin late today through Sun. A cold front
will move into the NW Gulf Mon and stall over the northern Gulf
through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds persist off the coast of Colombia this
morning, between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower
pressure over norther South America. SEas are reaching 8 to 11 ft
in this area. Fresh to strong winds are also pulsing off Honduras
where seas are up to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft
are noted elsewhere. No significant showers or thunderstorms are
evident.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
located just SE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will
continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central
Caribbean through tonight. Fresh east to southeast winds will
pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night through today. A
N to S aligned trough is forecast to develop along 75W from N
coast of Colombia across the SE Bahamas Mon through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 mb high pressure is centered southeast of Bermuda near
29N61W. Broad surface ridging extends to the southwest of the
high pressure to central Florida. Over the central Atlantic, a
dissipating stationary front extends from 31N31W to 25N40W, where
it transitions to a shear line to 19.5N65W. Recent scatterometer
and satellite data showed fresh to strong E winds between the shear
line and 23N, west of 55W. Concurrent altimeter satellite data
showed seas to 9 ft in this area. A few showers and thunderstorms
are noted north of the shear line from 20N to 22N between 55W and
60W. Fresh to strong E winds are also noted north of Hispaniola
and the approaches to the Windward Passage. NW swell to 8 ft is
evident north of 27N between 35W and 50W. Elsewhere west of 35W,
gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted off the northeast
coast of Florida ahead of an upper trough moving through the
eastern United States.

For the forecast west of 55W, the shearline will remain nearly
stationary along 20N through today. A band of fresh to strong NE
to E winds, with seas to 9 ft will persist south of 23N through
the upcoming weekend as a high pressure center remains in the
vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold front will move off the
southeastern U.S. coast this morning and become stationary off
northeast Florida tonight. A sharp trough is expected to develop
from the Windward Passage northward across the SE Bahamas along
75W Mon. Low pressure develops along the trough near 26N75W Mon
night, shifts NNE and exits the region Tue.

$$
Christensen
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