[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150901
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Apr 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Guinea near 10N15W and continues to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N19W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm north of
the ITCZ between 25W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Pensacola, Florida to South
Texas. No significant convection is along this boundary. Gentle
to moderate easterly flow dominates most of the basin, except
for moderate to fresh winds in the NW basin and within the
Florida Straits. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over most of the Gulf,
except in the NW Gulf, seas are up to 8 ft.  Otherwise, patchy
areas of haze are possible over
portions of the southwestern and west-central Gulf with some
reduction to visibilities, due to ongoing seasonal agricultural
fires in portions of Central America and Mexico.

For the forecast, the stationary front will start to lift north
as a warm front through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh SE return
flow will dominate most of the basin late Fri through Sun. A
cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon and stall over the
northern Gulf through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Except for the greater Antilles, most of the basin is relatively
quiet in terms of precipitation. A 1025 mb high pressure center
SE of Bermuda continues to tighten the pressure gradient in the
Caribbean, thus resulting in strong winds offshore Honduras,
Belize, and NW Colombia. A recent scatterometer pass observed
fresh trade winds elsewhere in the central and eastern
Caribbean. Mainly moderate E winds are elsewhere west of 80W.
Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 5 to 7 ft
elsewhere in the eastern half of the Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft in
the NW Caribbean.

Looking ahead, a robust mid-level trough is likely to form this
weekend over the southeastern Bahamas and Windward Passage area.
Periods of enhanced rainfall and strong thunderstorms are likely
over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands from this weekend through much of next week.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
located just SE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will
continue to support fresh to strong trades over the
south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh east to
southeast winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at
night through Fri. A north to south aligned trough is forecast
to develop along 75W from N coast of Colombia across the SE
Bahamas Mon through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered SE of Bermuda. Broad surface
ridging extends SW from the high pressure to central Florida.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are north of 25N and west of
70W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds
are south of 25N and west of 40W, where seas are 7 to 9 ft.

Over the central Atlantic, a cold front continues to drift south
extending from 31N38W to 28N47W. Light to gentle winds surround
the front, however, seas behind the boundary are 10 to 12 ft. A
shearline is south of the cold front, extending along 20N
between 35W and 45W with moderate to fresh E winds north of the
boundary. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere in the
Atlantic between 20W and 40W, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Fresh NW
winds are noted north of 20N and east of 20W surrounding the
Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the shearline will remain nearly
stationary along 20N through Fri. A band of fresh to strong NE
to E winds, with seas in the 8 to 9 ft range will persist across
the waters S of 23N through the upcoming weekend as a high
pressure center remains in the vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold
front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri morning and
become stationary there
Fri night. A sharp trough is expected to develop from the
Windward Passage northward across the SE Bahamas along 75W Mon.
Low pressure develops along the trough near 26N75W Mon night,
shifts NNE, and exits the region Tue.

$$
Mora
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