[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Sierra-Leone near 07N12W and extends to 04N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N17W to 03N34W to 01S44W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N east of 16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from southern Alabama to Cedar Key,
Florida supporting some showers in the Pensacola coastal waters.
Surface high pressure centered SE of Bermuda continue to extend a
ridge SW across great portions of Florida and into the eastern
half of the Gulf of Mexico. This is supporting light to gentle
variable winds in the NE basin and gentle to moderate return flow
elsewhere, except for fresh winds off the northern Yucatan
peninsula. Seas are in the 1 to 3 ft basin-wide. Otherwise,
satellite imagery continue to reveal a large area of light to
moderate density smoke covering mainly the western half of the
Gulf to the Bay of Campeche, and portions of the Central Gulf.
This smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce
visibility, mainly in the W Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will lift
north and inland tonight. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow
will dominate most of the basin tonight through Sun. A cold front
will move into the NW Gulf Mon and stall over the central Gulf
Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds persist off the coast of Colombia,
between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower
pressure over northern South America. Seas are reaching 8 to 11
ft in this area. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft prevail
elsewhere. No significant showers or thunderstorms are evident.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
located just SE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will
continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-
central Caribbean through tonight. Fresh east to southeast winds
will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras this evening
through tonight. A N to S aligned trough is forecast to develop
along 74W-75W from the N coast of Colombia across the SE Bahamas
early Mon through late Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered southeast of Bermuda near
30N61W. To the west of the high pressure center, numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed between 74W
and a surface trough that is analyzed from 31N78W to near Cape
Canaveral, Florida. Over the central Atlantic, a weak cold front
is analyzed from 31N34W. East of the front, a trough extends
from 30N31W to 26N37W, where it devolves into a shearline to
21N70W. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of the
trough north of 27N to 25W and along the shearline from 19N to
21N between 56W and 70W. Satellite derived winds reveal fresh NE
to E winds between the shearline and 23N, west of 52W. Seas to 8
ft are also within this area.  NW swell to 8 to 10 ft is evident
in this morning's altimeter pass north of 27N between 35W and
50W. Elsewhere west of 35W, gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5
ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the shearline will remain nearly
stationary along 20N through tonight then begin to drift N on
Sat. A band of fresh to strong NE to E winds, with seas to 9 ft
will persist south of 24N through the upcoming weekend as a high
pressure center remains in the vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold
front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast this morning and
become stationary off northeast Florida tonight. An associated
upper level trough across the NW waters this morning will move E-
SE through the weekend and support very active weather across
the Bahamas ahead of it. A sharp trough is expected to develop
from the Windward Passage northward across the SE Bahamas along
74W early Mon. Low pressure is expected to develop along the
trough near 26N73W Mon night, and shift N-NE and exit the region
Tue evening.

$$
Ramos
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