[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Apr 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning:

Gale-force winds are forecast to be pulsing during the nighttime
and early morning hours, for Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. The surface pressure gradient, that is between high
pressure that is just to the southwest of Bermuda, and lower
surface pressures in Colombia, will support fresh to strong trade
winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Saturday. The
wave heights will be ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, during the
hours of the comparatively fastest wind speeds.

Please, read the High Seas forecast at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, or the Offshore Forecast at
the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for details.

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

Northerly gale-force winds are forecast, near the coast of
Morocco, in the marine zone Agadir, from 13/1500 UTC until 14/1200
UTC, according to the forecast from Meteo-France. The wave heights
will build to 12 feet tonight, in association with these winds.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, issued by Meteo-
France at the website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 04N20W, and to the Equator along 24W. The ITCZ
continues from 00N24W to 03S30W, 03S33W, and to 04S37W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 05N southward from 12W eastward, and from 03N southward
between 46W and 52W in Brazil. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 30N66W, about 135 nm to the
SW of Bermuda. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico, with a ridge that extends from the 1025 mb high pressure
center. Rainshowers are possible from 90W eastward, in trade wind
flow.

Mostly fresh to some strong SE winds are in the central one-
third of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh SE and S winds cover the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. The wave heights range from 6
feet to 8 feet from 22N northward from 89W westward. A few
isolated wave heights are at 9 feet and at 11 feet, from 120 nm to
160 nm off the coast of SE Texas. The wave heights range from 4
feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the area.

The pressure gradient between a ridge centered over the W Atlc
and lower pressures over NE Mexico will continue to support fresh
to strong southerly winds over the western half of the Gulf
through late today. A weak cold front will move off the Texas
coast tonight, and extend over the northern Gulf on Thu, then
stall. The western part of the front will lift back north as a
warm front on Fri, while its remainder remains stationary. Fresh
to strong N to NE winds will briefly follow the front tonight into
Thu morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
the GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, for the Caribbean Sea.

Strong to near gale-force NE winds are in the south central
Caribbean Sea, off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong NE
winds cover the eastern one-third of the area, in the central
sections from Hispaniola and Jamaica southward. Moderate to fresh
winds are in the remainder of the area. The wave heights range
from 8 feet to 12 feet near the coast of Colombia; from 6 feet to
8 feet in the Windward Passage; and from 3 feet to 6 feet
elsewhere.

Shallow moisture, that is embedded in the trade wind flow, is
producing isolated to scattered passing rainshowers. The
comparatively greatest amounts of cloudiness and precipitation
are from 16N northward.

The pressure gradient between high pressure just W of Bermuda and
low pressure in Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong
trades over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia through Fri night. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force
just offshore Colombia at night through tonight. Fresh east to
southeast winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at
night through Thu night. N-NE swell will dominated seas E of 65W
through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
the GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, for the Eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front passes through 31N34W to 24N44W. The cold front is
dissipating from 24N44W to 21N51W. A shear line continues from
21N51W to 20N60W, to 21N71W near the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either
side of the frontal boundary/shear line. Fresh to strong NE winds
are within 270 nm to the north of the shear line between 50W and
70W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere within 360 nm to 480
nm to the north of the shear line between 50W and 70W. Fresh NE
winds are from 16N southward between 40W and 60W. Fresh N winds
are within 100 nm of the coast of Africa from 28N to 32N, and
within 75 nm of the coast of Africa from 21N to 23N. Fresh E to SE
winds are from 29N southward from 73W westward. Moderate to fresh
NE winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The wave
heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from the frontal boundary
northward between 50W and 60W, within 270 nm to the north of the
shear line between 60W and 70W, and to the north and northwest of
the front from 6 feet to 9 feet from 50W eastward. The wave
heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet from 25N northward between 60W
and 70W; and from 3 feet to 5 feet from 70W westward. The wave
heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from the line 31N17W 25N30W
21N39W 18N53W southward to 04N/05N. The wave heights range from
3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean to the
west and northwest of the frontal boundary. A 1025 mb high
pressure center is near 30N66W.

A cold front extends from 30N35W to 23N46W where a shearline
begins and continues to near 21N71W. High pressure located just W
of Bermuda dominates the remainder of the forecast area. A belt of
fresh to strong NE to E winds, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range
will persist across the waters S of 23N through the upcoming
weekend as high pressure remains in the vicinity of Bermuda.
A weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri,
and become stationary Fri night.

$$
mt/ss
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net