[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132128
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Apr 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The surface pressure gradient between
high pressure north of the basin and low pressure over northern
Colombia will continue to support pulsing gale-force winds tonight
into early Thu offshore of northern Colombia. Seas will peak
around 11 to 12 ft during the late night and early morning hours.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Offshore Waters Forecast at website
https:///www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for more details.

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Northerly gale-force winds
are forecast near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir,
from until 15/0000 UTC, according to the forecast from Meteo-
France. The wave heights will peak around 12 ft tonight in
association with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W to 04N20W to the Equator along 24W. The ITCZ
continues from 00N24W to 03S30W to the coast of Brazil near
05S38W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from the equator to 04N and east of 13W. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate convection is noted from 06S to 02N between 24W
and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging extends across the southern U.S. Gulf coast
states. A cold front and associated low pressure are moving
through the Texas Hill Country. The resulting pressure gradient
over the Gulf basin is supporting fresh to strong return
southerly flow across the western Gulf along with seas of 6 to 10
ft, highest north of 26N, with moderate to fresh return southerly
flow and seas of 4 to 7 ft across the eastern Gulf. Patchy to
areas of haze are possible in the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche
with some reduction to visibilities, due to ongoing seasonal
agricultural fires in portions of Central America and Mexico.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge centered
over the W Atlc and lower pressures over NE Mexico will continue
to support fresh to strong southerly winds over the western half
of the Gulf through late afternoon before diminishing. A weak cold
front will move off the Texas coast tonight, and extend over the
northern Gulf on Thu, then stall. The western part of the front
will lift back north as a warm front on Fri, while its remainder
remains stationary. Fresh to strong NE winds will briefly follow
the front tonight into Thu morning. Moderate to fresh SE return
flow will dominate most of the basin through the weekend. A cold
front may impact the basin early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect offshore of northern Colombia.

High pressure north of the basin and low pressure over northern
Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades in the central
Caribbean, along with seas of 7 to 11 ft, except locally to 12 ft
near 11.5N77.5W. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere, along
with seas of mainly 4 to 7 ft. Shallow moisture that is embedded
in the trade wind flow, is producing isolated to scattered passing
rainshowers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
just west of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombian will
continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central
Caribbean through Fri night. Winds will pulse to minimal gale
force just offshore Colombia tonight. Fresh east to southeast
winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night
through Thu night. N-NE swell will dominated seas east of 65W
through Thu. A north to south aligned trough is forecast to
develop along 75W and extend across the far SE Bahamas Mon through
Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect in the eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from north of the area through 31N31W to
25N42W where it continues as dissipating to 21N51W where it then
transitions to a shearline continuing to 21N71W. High pressure of
1025 mb is centered just south-southwest of Bermuda near 30N66W. A
ridge extends from the high to 28N50W to 31N37W, and to near
Hilton Head, South Carolina. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds
are noted right under the ridge along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Fresh
to strong NE-E winds are noted north of the shearline to 23N/24N
along with seas of 7 to 10 ft. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in northerly
swell west of the front to 60W, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere west of
the boundary. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail
elsewhere west/north of the front and shearline.

To the east, a pair of high pressure areas are positioned between
the Azores and the Canary Islands with a ridge axis extending
through 31N25W to 20N51W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7
ft in mixed NE and NW swell are found right under and near the
ridge axis. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail elsewhere
over the open waters, except fresh to strong from 20N to 25N
between the coast of Africa and 20W. Seas are mainly 6 to 9 ft
across the remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the shearline from 20N55W to 21N72W
will become diffuse through the end of the week. A belt of fresh
to strong NE to E winds, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range will
persist across the waters south of 23N through the upcoming
weekend as high pressure remains in the vicinity of Bermuda. A
weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri
morning and become stationary there Fri night. High pressure will
dominate for the start of the weekend. A surface trough may
develop between 70W and 75W toward the end of the weekend,
lingering and perhaps lifting northward into early next week as
another cold front and high pressure behind it possibly builds
down from the northwest-north.

For the forecast east of 55W, the front will completely wash out
through the end of the week. An area of low pressure may drop down
from north of the area to the vicinity of 31N35W this weekend into
early next week with increasing winds and building seas north of
25N and east of 45W. High pressure will shift south as the low
moves down bringing more tranquil conditions south of 25N.

$$
Lewitsky
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