[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131215 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Apr 13 2022

Updated to include East Atlantic Gale Warning

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure located just W of Bermuda and the Colombian low will
continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through Fri night. Minimal
gale force winds will pulse just offshore Colombia at night
through tonight. Seas will peak near 12 ft with the strongest
winds. Conditions will improve later this weekend. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds are
expected near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone Agadir,
today through early Thu, from 13/1500 UTC to 14/1200 UTC,
according to the forecast from Meteo-France. Seas will build to
over 12 ft tonight in association with these winds. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 02N23W. The ITCZ
extends from 02N23W to 04S38W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present from 02N-07N between 13W-18W.
Similar
convection is near 00N50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1025 mb located just S of Bermuda near 30N65W
extends a ridge across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The
pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures over
Texas and NE Mexico continues to support fresh to strong SE
winds
mainly over the western half of the Gulf. A recent scatterometer
pass confirmed the presence of these winds. Fresh to strong E
winds are also noted over the Straits of Florida. Seas are 8-11
ft
N of 22N and W of 89W, with the highest seas over the NW Gulf.
Seas of 6-8 ft are noted N of 23N between 86W and 89W, and also
in
the Straits of Florida. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere,
except within about 60 nm W of Florida and in the E Bay of
Campeche.

An band of showers, with embedded thunderstorms, is over the
western Gulf affecting also SE Louisiana. The strongest storms
can produce gusty winds to near gale-force, frequent lightning
and rough seas. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce
this convective activity.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across
the Gulf waters and a lower pressures over NE Mexico will
continue
to support fresh to strong southerly winds over the western half
of the Gulf through late today. A weak cold front will move off
the Texas coast tonight, and extend over the northern Gulf on
Thu,
then stall. The western part of the front will lift back north as
a warm front on Fri, while its remainder remains stationary.
Fresh to strong N to NE winds will briefly follow the front
tonight
into Thu morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please
read the Special Features section for more details.

Fresh to strong NE winds persist in the Windward passage and in
the lee of eastern Cuba. Similar wind speeds are over the
remainder
of the central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate
to fresh trades are elsewhere. Sea heights are 8 to 12 ft near
the coast of Colombia, 6 to 8 ft in the Windward passage, and 3
to
6 ft elsewhere across the basin.

Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, is noted
across
the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers. These
patches of low level moisture, are more concentrated in the lee
of
east-central Cuba, and over Hispaniola and regional waters.
Similar cloudiness is observed over parts of Central America.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N
of the Caribbean Sea and the Colombian low will continue to
support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia through Fri night. Minimal gale force
winds will pulse just offshore Colombia at night through
tonight.
Fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds will pulse in
the
Gulf of Honduras at night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N37W and continues
southwestward to 21N55W, where it transitions into a shearline
that extends to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. A broken band
of mainly low clouds, with possible showers is associated with
the shearline. Scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NE
winds on the northern side of the shearline, and moderate to
fresh
E winds on the south side of it. Seas of 9-14 ft in NW swell
follow the cold front. High pressure of 1025 mb located just S
of
Bermuda follows the frontal boundary. Abundant cold air
stratocumulus
clouds are noted W of the front and N of the shearline to about
70W. E of the front, a 1021 mb high pressure is situated midway
between the Azores and the Madeira Islands, and dominates the
remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Seas are subsiding E
of
35W, and now mainly seas of 8-10 ft prevail across that area.
Across the tropical Atlantic, mainly moderate to fresh trades
are
seen based on scatterometer data with seas of 8-10 ft E of 40W,
and seas of 6-8 ft between 40W and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, A cold front extends from 31N37W to
21N55W where a shearline begins and continues to near 21N70W.
High pressure located just W of Bermuda dominates the remainder
of
the forecast area. A belt of fresh to strong NE to E winds, with
seas in the 8 to 9 ft range will persist across the waters S of
23N through the upcoming weekend as high pressure remains in the
vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold front will move off the
southeastern U.S. coast Fri and become stationary Fri night.

$$
GR/AH
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