[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102223
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean from the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N17W to 01N20W to 00N31W to the coast of Brazil near
03S41W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
within 240 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, mainly from 03S-06N
between 15W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure is centered over the Florida Big Bend,
allowing for gentle winds and 2-3 ft seas over the NE Gulf. Strong
SE to S return flow is occurring over the western Gulf. An
altimeter pass from 10/1630 UTC showed seas of 10 to 12 ft
offshore of Texas from 26N-28N between 95W and 96.5W. NOAA buoy
42019 near 27.9N 95.3W is reporting 25 kt winds and 12 ft seas at
2100 UTC. Seas are likely 5-7 ft over the southwest Gulf of Mexico
and 3-5 ft over the southeast Gulf.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds across the western
Gulf will expand eastward to the central Gulf Mon through Wed.
Winds over the eastern Gulf will increase to fresh speeds Mon
through Wed as the high pressure shifts to east of the Gulf. A
weak cold front will move off the Texas coast on Wed night, then
become stationary over the northern Gulf on Thu. The western part
of the front will lift back north as a warm front on Fri, while
its remainder remains stationary.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the eastern tip of Cuba to Jamaica
to eastern Honduras near 15N83.5W. Isolated showers are possible
near the front. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are
occurring to the NW of the front, between the Cayman Islands and
eastern Honduras. Fresh to strong NE trades are likely occurring
within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds
prevail, along with seas of 4-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds
will continue in the south-central Caribbean through at least Thu
night. The stationary front will weaken tonight and gradually
dissipate through Mon afternoon. The moderate to fresh winds over
the northwestern Caribbean will change little through Thu, with
the exception of fresh to strong northeast winds pulsing at night
and into the mornings in the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage
through Tue. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Honduras at night through Fri. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse south of Hispaniola Mon night through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N62W to the eastern tip of Cuba
near 20N75W. Isolated showers are possible near the front. Fresh
to strong SW winds are likely occurring within 180 nm east of the
front, north of 29N. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are behind the
front to about 73W, mainly north of 30N. NOAA buoy 41047 near
27.5N 71.5W recorded 17 kt NNW winds and seas of 11 ft at 10/2100
UTC. NOAA buoy 41048 just N of our area near 31.8N 69.6W recorded
25 kt WNW winds and seas of 16 ft at 10/2100 UTC. An earlier
satellite altimeter pass from 10/1430 UTC showed seas of 16-17 ft
from 30N-31N between 69W-70W. Seas greater than 8 ft likely extend
as far south as 24N and as far west as 76W. Winds and seas are
much lower within 60 nm of the east coast of Florida due to a 1023
mb high pressure centered along the Florida Big Bend.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
reach from near 31N55W to northwest Haiti by Mon morning, and from
31N50W to 24N61W to 21N71W Mon evening. The strong winds
following the front north of 30N will lift north of the area
tonight. However, as the system moves eastward, strong NW winds
will affect waters north of 29N between 55W-67W on Mon and Mon
evening. High pressure will move eastward along 30N/31N through
the period leading to improving conditions over most of the
forecast waters. With the high shifting eastward, expect
increasing northeast to east winds for areas south of 23N,
including near the Windward Passage, tonight through Thu night,
and near the coast of Hispaniola Fri and Fri night.

Farther east, a 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 33N44W.
Ridging with light to moderate winds prevails generally north of
21N between 31W-55W. Seas are 5-7 ft in this area. A cold front
stretches from 31N16W to 24N27W to 25N31W. Fresh NW winds are
north of 30N, behind the front to 30W. Seas of 8-13 ft from this
system prevail north of 25N and east of 45W. Moderate to fresh
trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic from the ITCZ to 18N,
with 6-9 ft seas.

For the forecast E of 55W, N to NE winds will increase within 150
nm of the coast of Morocco Wed into Thu as high pressure moves
just NW of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected
there, with the possibility of gales.

$$
Hagen
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