[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101719
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Apr 10 2022

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean from the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N16W to 01N20W to 00N33W to the coast of Brazil near
03S40W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 01N to 06N between 14W and 23W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 17W
and 28W. Similar convection is within 90 nm north of the ITCZ
between 28W and 33W. Another area of scattered moderate convection
is from 03S to 00N between 33W and the coast of Brazil.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure settled over the area is keeping mostly clear
skies over the Gulf of Mexico. The 1024 mb high is centered
offshore the Florida Big Bend and is allowing for light to
gentle winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft in the NE Gulf. Moderate to
fresh easterly flow is east of 90W and south 24N, while fresh to
strong southerly flow is west of 90W. Mainly strong winds and
rough seas are noted in the NW Gulf with buoy 42019 reporting 10
ft wave heights. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the SW Gulf and 4 to 6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh winds will expand across the eastern Gulf
on Mon through Wed as the high pressure shifts eastward out of
the basin. The fresh to strong winds across the western and
central Gulf will continue through Wed. A weak cold front will
move off the Texas coast on Wed night, then stall over the
northern Gulf on Thu. Fresh northeast to east winds are
expected behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front currently extends from eastern Cuba to 18N80W to
northeastern Honduras. A recent scatterometer pass observed
moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted behind
the front over the NW Caribbean. In the SW basin, continuing
convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers and
thunderstorms near the Costa Rica-Panama border and adjacent
waters. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted within 60 nm of the
coast of Colombia between 74W and 77W, with 6 to 9 ft seas.
Elsewhere, scatterometer data notes mainly moderate winds and
seas are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds
will continue off the coast of Colombia through at least Thu
night. The cold front will become stationary this afternoon and
gradually dissipate through Mon afternoon. Winds will continue
to prevail at moderate to fresh speeds through Thu for most of
the northwestern and eastern Caribbean. High pressure building
in behind the front will increase northeast to east winds across
portions of the northwest and central Caribbean from tonight
through at least Wed night. Fresh to strong east to southeast
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night from Tue
through Thu.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The gale warning in the western Atlantic has expired.

A slow moving cold front extends from near 31N65W to the
southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba. A recent scatterometer
pass observed moderate to fresh  southwest winds ahead of the
front with fresh to strong northwesterly winds behind the front,
north of about 23N. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
boundary. A second cold front extends from near 31N67W to the
central Bahamas. Fresh to strong west-northwest winds and
building seas to 15 ft are following this front to near 75W.
West of 75W to Florida's eastern coast is under the influence of
high pressure building in from the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for
moderate northerly winds. Seas remain 3 to 6 ft

Farther east, a cold front stretches from west of the Canary
Islands near 31N19W to 25N28W to 25N40W, where it continues as a
surface trough southwestward to 23N50W. Moderate NE winds are
noted north of the boundary, becoming moderate to fresh NW winds
east of 25W with 6 to 9 ft seas. Wave heights may be above 10 ft
in northerly persistent swell along north of 30N and east of
40W.  The remainder of the basin is under the influence of high
pressure. Moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades with 5 to 8 ft seas
are present S of 20N, except for south of 10N and west of 40W,
seas may be up to 9 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6
ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
31N62W to 25N67W to the Windward Passage this afternoon, and
from 31N55W to northwest Haiti by Mon morning. The secondary
cold front will merge with the first front by early this
afternoon. Winds will continue to diminish to moderate to fresh
speeds tonight along the front. High pressure will move eastward
along 30N/31N through midweek, which will improve conditions
over most of the forecast waters. This high pressure will lead
to increasing northeast to east winds near the Windward Passage
tonight through Thu night.

$$
Mora
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