[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Apr 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean from near Bissau,
Guinea-Bissau to 07N20W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
seen S of Liberia and Ivory Coast from 02S to 03N between 05W and
16W. An ITCZ extends from 02N19W through 01S30W to NW of
Fortaleza, Brazil near 03S41W. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 04S to 04N between 19W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge stretches from a 1022 mb high near Daytona Beach,
Florida to S of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong southerly return
flow along with 7 to 10 ft seas are present across the W and S
central Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh SE
winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are seen over the N central Gulf.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft prevail for
the rest of the Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the surface ridge
and a low pressure over NE Mexico will continue to support fresh
to strong southerly winds over the W and S central Gulf. These
winds will expand northeastward to the N central Gulf Mon through
Wed. Winds over the E Gulf will increase to fresh Mon through Wed
as the 1022 mb high continues to shift eastward. A weak cold
front will move off the Texas coast on Wed night, then become
stationary over the N Gulf on Thu. The W part of the front will
lift back north as a warm front on Fri, while its remainder
remains stationary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends from the eastern tip of Cuba
across Jamaica to near the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Patchy
showers are noted up to 70 nm from either side of the front.
Scattered trade-wind showers are evident over Hispaniola and
Puerto Rico. Fresh to strong NE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are
occurring between Jamima and the S coast of Cuba, including waters
near the Cayman Islands and Windward Passage. Fresh to strong
with locally near-gale NE trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft exist over
the S central basin, just N of Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E
trades and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E trade winds will
continue in the S central Caribbean through at least Thu night.
The stationary front will weaken further tonight and gradually
dissipate through Mon afternoon. The moderate to fresh winds over
the NW Caribbean will change little through Thu, with the
exception of fresh to strong NE winds pulsing at night and into
the mornings in the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage through Tue.
Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras
at night through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the N central Atlantic across 31N59W to
the eastern tip of Cuba. Scattered showers are found up to 70 nm
form either side of the front. Moderate to fresh SW to NW winds
with 9 to 13 ft seas are observed near the northern portion of this
front, N of 26N between 60W and 73W. Near the southern portion,
moderate to fresh NE winds along with 7 to 9 ft seas are present
across the SE Bahamas and waters N of eastern Cuba.

For the central and E Atlantic, another cold front curves
southwestward from E of Madeira across the Canary Islands to
25N32W, then continues westward a stationary front to 25N40W. A
surface trough is also persisting farther W from 26N42W to 23N51W.
Cloudiness and patchy rain are evident up to 80 nm from either
side of these features. Despite the presence of moderate to fresh
winds near these features, persistent northerly swell is
maintaining seas at 9 to 14 ft, N of 25N between the Canary
Islands and 45W. Farther S, moderate to fresh NE trades and seas
at 6 to 8 ft are from 03N to 19N between 30W and the Lesser
Antilles, and also from 10N to 23N between the central African
coast and 30W. Light to gentle winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft
prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the first cold front will reach from
31N55W to NW Haiti by Mon morning. Strong WNW winds and building
seas are behind this front NE of the Bahamas. The strong winds
will lift NE of the area by late tonight. High pressure will move
eastward along 30N/31N through the period, leading to improving
conditions over most of the forecast waters. With the high
shifting eastward, expect increasing NE to E winds near the
Windward Passage tonight through Thu night, and near the coast of
Hispaniola Fri and Fri night. A weak cold front will move off the
SE U.S. coast Fri and become stationary Fri night.

$$

Chan
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