[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W to 10N22W. The ITCZ extends from 03N15W to 00N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate to isolate
strong convection is noted along the ITCZ from 03S to 02N and W of
10W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the NE Gulf from the Big Bend of
Florida near 30N83W to near New Orleans, Louisiana. Fresh to
strong W to NW winds and seas 8 to 10 ft are noted in the eastern
Gulf. High pressure ridging extends across the rest of the Gulf
anchored by a 1025 mb high near 24N93W. Gentle to moderate winds
are noted in the western Gulf and moderate to fresh winds are
observed in the southern Gulf. Outside of the NE Gulf, seas range
2 to 4 ft in the NW Gulf and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure is building across the area in
the wake of the recent cold front. Fresh to strong west north
winds over the northern Gulf east of 94W are following a secondary
cold front that is currently moving across the NE Gulf. This
front will quickly move southward across the eastern Gulf today
with the fresh to strong winds following it. These winds will
diminish by tonight as the front exits the Gulf. Fresh to strong
east to southeast return flow is expected in the western Gulf
tonight and will continue through Wed afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front meanders southwestward from east-central Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras, then continues as a stationary front across
north-central Honduras. Scattered showers are occurring along and
up to 50 nm SE of this boundary. Convergent trade winds are
causing similar conditions at the SW basin, near the coast of
Costa Rica and Panama. Fresh to strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas are observed behind the cold front over the NW corner of the
basin. Gentle to moderate easterly winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft
are found ahead of the cold front between the Honduras-Costa Rico
border and the Island of Youth. Fresh to strong NE to ENE trades
with seas at 5 to 8 ft are present over the S central and SE
basin, N of Colombia and Venezuela. Moderate to fresh E trades and
seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds
will pulse tonight in the south-central Caribbean near the coast
of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will remain steady Sun through
Wed night. The cold front will move across the rest of the
northwestern Caribbean today and dissipate by Sun. Winds will
diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by tonight. High pressure
building in behind the front will increase northeast to east winds
across the northwestern and central Caribbean from Sun night
through at least Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from NW of Bermuda across
31N71W to the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms continue along and up to 80 nm SE of the front N
of 26N. Fresh to strong westerly winds along with seas at 6 to 8
ft are found behind and ahead of the front, N of 28N between 69W
and the Georgia-N Florida coast.

The Atlantic ridge stretches southwestward from a 1022 mb Azores
high near 27N57W to E Cuba. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 7 ft
seas related to this feature are present N of 20N between 20W and
69W. Farther E, moderate to fresh NE trades with seas of 5 to 7 ft
are found near the Canary Islands N of 24N between the NW African
coast and 20W. Farther SW, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and
seas of 6 to 8 ft exist from 12N to 20N between the central
African coast and 30W; and also from 05N to 18N between 30W and
the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from
near 31N69W to the central Bahamas and to eastern Cuba this
afternoon, and from 31N64W to the Windward Passage by Sun morning.
Strong winds are expected to continue ahead and behind this front
through Sun. A second cold front will push off the Florida coast
today. This front will bring widespread strong to near gale- force
winds and building seas today and Sun, as it merges with the
first front by Sun. High pressure will build over the area early
next week which will improve conditions over most of the forecast
waters. This high pressure will lead to increasing northeast to
east winds near the Windward Passage from Mon night through Wed
night.

$$
AReinhart
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