[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Apr 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-
Bissau to near 09N22W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is found S of the trough, near and S of the Liberia-
Ivory Coast coastline to 01N between 05W and 15W. An ITCZ extends
from 02N16W through EQ30W to NE of Belem, Brazil at EQ46W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from
01S to 02N between 16W and the Brazilian coast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A developing cold front curves westward from the Florida Panhandle
near Panama City to near New Orleans, Louisiana. Fresh to strong
NW winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are present near this feature
across the N central and NE Gulf. A 1023 mb high over the NW Gulf
is sustaining fresh with locally strong N to NE winds and 5 to 8
ft seas over the SW, central and SE Gulf, including the Bay of
Campeche and Yucatan Channel. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2
to 4 ft are seen near the high.

For the forecast, high pressure is building across the area in
the wake of the aforementioned cold front. Fresh with locally
strong N to NE winds S of 26N will diminish tonight. Fresh to
strong NW winds associated with the cold front are expected to
remain at the NE Gulf but shift from the N central Gulf to the E
central Gulf early this evening. This front will quickly move
southward across the E Gulf tonight and Sat, allowing these winds
to diminish by Sun. Fresh to strong E to SE return flow is
expected in the W Gulf Sat night and through Wed afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front meanders southwestward from central Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras, then continues as a stationary front across central
Honduras. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring along
and up to 80 nm SE of this boundary. Convergent trade winds are
causing similar conditions at the SW basin, near the coast of
Costa Rica and Panama. Fresh to strong NE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas
are observed behind the cold front over the NW corner of the
basin. Gentle to moderate easterly winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft
are found ahead of the cold front between the Honduras-Costa Rico
border and the Island of Youth. Fresh to strong NE to ENE trades
with seas at 5 to 7 ft are present over the S central and SE
basin, N of Colombia and Venezuela. Moderate to fresh E trades and
seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E trades will pulse late
at night in the S central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia
tonight and Sat night. Then, fresh to strong winds will remain
steady Sun through Wed night. The cold front will move across the
rest of the NW Caribbean through Sat and dissipate by Sun. Winds
will diminish to moderate to fresh by Sat night. High pressure
building in behind the front will increase NE to E winds across
the NW and central Caribbean from Sun night through at least Tue
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from NW of Bermuda across
31N72W and the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are evident near and up to 80 nm SE of the
front. Fresh to strong westerly winds along with seas at 6 to 8
ft are found behind and ahead of the front, N of 28N between 69W
and the Georgia-N Florida coast. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the Atlantic.

The Atlantic ridge stretches southwestward from a 1025 mb Azores
High across 31N22W to E Cuba. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 7 ft
seas related to this feature are present N of 20N between 20W and
69W. Farther E, moderate to fresh NE trades with seas of 5 to 7
ft are found near the Canary Islands N of 24N between the NW
African coast and 20W. Farther SW, moderate to fresh NE to ENE
trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft exist from 12N to 20N between the
central African coast and 30W; and also from 05N to 18N between
30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds with seas at 3
to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from
near 31N71W across the central Bahamas to E Cuba Sat morning, and
from 31N64W to the Windward Passage by Sun morning. Strong W to
NW winds are expected behind this front through Sun. The front
will weaken over the SE part of the area late Mon through Tue. A
second cold front will push off the Florida coast early Sat. This
front will bring widespread strong to near gale-force winds and
building seas on Sat and Sun. Then, high pressure will build over
the area early next week; improving conditions for most of the
forecast waters. This high pressure will lead to increasing NE to
E winds near the Windward Passage from Mon night through Wed
night.

$$

Chan
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