[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082315
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2255 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W and continues to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from
03N21W to 02S30W to 01S42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed within 120 nm of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ. The strongest storms are occurring E of 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front that moved across the Gulf of Mexico during the
past few days now stretches from the western Atlantic to the NW
Caribbean Sea. A high pressure system over the southern United
States extends into the gulf, resulting in fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Fresh to strong anticyclonic winds are found E
of 94W, with the strongest winds occurring in the E Bay of
Campeche and within 60 nm of the coast from SE Louisiana to the
Florida panhandle. Seas in the region described are 6-10 ft S of
25N and 6-8 ft N of 25N. The highest seas are occurring in the E
Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 3-6 ft
seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure is building across the area in
the wake of the recent cold front. Fresh to strong north to
northeast winds south of 26N will diminish tonight. Fresh to
strong west north winds over the northern Gulf east of 94W are
following in behind a secondary cold front. This front will
quickly move across the NE Gulf this evening. These winds will
continue through Sat while shifting to the NE Gulf. Fresh to
strong east to southeast return flow is expected in the western
Gulf on Sat night and through early Wed afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from western Cuba to southern Belize in the
NW Caribbean Sea. A few showers are noted near the frontal
boundary. The rest of the basin is dominated by the
sprawling 1025 mb subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores.
Fresh to strong N-NE winds are present at the entrance of the
Yucatan Channel with seas of 4-7 ft. Similar wind speeds but
easterly are observed in the south-central Caribbean Sea, with the
strongest winds occurring off the Colombian coast and in the Gulf
of Venezuela. Seas in this area are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to
locally fresh trades are present in the north-central and eastern
Caribbean, while light to gentle winds prevail in the NW Caribbean
ahead of the front. Seas are 2-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds will
pulse late at night in the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia tonight and Sat night and remain steady
afterwards through Wed night. A late-season cold front extending
from west-central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will move across
the rest of the northwestern Caribbean through Sat while
weakening. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds behind the
front will cover the western Caribbean on Sat. The front will
dissipate by Sun allowing for winds to diminish to moderate to
fresh speeds. High pressure building in behind the front will
increase northeast to east winds across the northwestern and
central Caribbean from Sun night through at least Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N73W to western Cuba and some
cloudiness and isolated showers are observed ahead of the frontal
boundary. Fresh to strong SW winds are found ahead of the front,
mainly N of 28N and W of 68W, with seas of 6-9 ft. Behind the
front, moderate to locally fresh W winds and seas of 3-6 ft
prevail. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are affecting the
waters S of 23N and between 60W and the eastern Bahamas. Seas are
4-6 ft.

The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by a high pressure
of 1025 mb positioned near the Azores that maintains fairly
tranquil weather conditions. A cold front is located north of our
area in the central Atlantic and the pressure gradient between
the front and the high pressure result in fresh SW winds N of 29N
and between 33W and 45W. Seas in this area are 6-8 ft. Moderate to
locally fresh trades are noted S of 20N between Africa and the
Lesser Antilles. Seas in the area described are 6-8 ft. Fresh to
strong NE winds are present N of 20N and E of 18W, with the
strongest winds occurring off Morocco. Seas are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere
moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will reach from near
31N72W to the central Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Sat morning, and
from 31N64W to the Windward Passage by Sun morning. The front
will become stationary and weaken over the southeastern part of
the area late Mon through Tue. Strong west to northwest winds are
expected behind this front through Sun. A second cold front will
push off the Florida coast early Sat. This front will bring
widespread strong to near gale-force winds and building seas on
Sat and Sun. High pressure will build over the area early next
week which will improve conditions over most of the forecast
waters. This high pressure will lead to increasing northeast to
east winds near the Windward Passage from Mon night through Wed
night.

$$
DELGADO
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