[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Apr 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 04N16W and 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W,
to the Equator along 25W, 02S36W 01S42W. Precipitation: scattered
to numerous strong is within 120 nm to the east of the line that
runs from 05N03W to 03N05W to 02N09W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 04N southward between 13W and 30W, and
from 04N southward between 44W and 52W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 31N74W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the
NW Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, to the coast of NW
Cuba, into the eastern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, to
northern Guatemala. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 90 nm on either side of the front.

A surface ridge passes through the Deep South of Texas to the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

The wave heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet in the central two-
thirds of the Gulf of Mexico. The wave heights range from 3 feet
to 6 feet elsewhere. Strong northerly winds are within 200 nm to
the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula between 89W and 96W. Fresh
to strong northerly winds cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico
from 90W westward. Strong westerly winds have been from 27N
northward from 85W eastward. The northerly winds should prevent
smoke and haze produced by agricultural fires in Mexico from
entering the Gulf today.

A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida to inland the
northeast Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure building across the
area in the wake of the front will allow for fresh to strong winds
to continue east of 96W through this afternoon. Another cold
front will move across the NE Gulf this evening. Fresh to strong
winds are expected with the front across the eastern Gulf today
through Sat. Fresh to strong east to southeast return flow is
expected in the western Gulf late Sat and through at least Tue
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through 31N74W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the
NW Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, to the coast of NW
Cuba, into the eastern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, to
northern Guatemala. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 90 nm on either side of the front.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans much of the Caribbean
Sea, from the Atlantic Ocean anticyclonic wind flow. This wind
regime is maintaining an ENE to ESE trade wind pattern in the
entire basin. Moderate and fresh winds cover much of the area.
The exception is the gentle winds that are in the northwestern
corner of the Caribbean Sea. The wave heights range from 6 feet
to 7 feet in the south central Caribbean Sea, within 270 nm of the
coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. The wave heights range from 4
feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the area.

Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds will pulse late night in the
south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia through
early next week. A late-season cold front over the Yucatan Channel
this morning will move across the northwestern Caribbean through
Sat. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are expected behind
the front. The front will dissipate by Sun, and winds will become
moderate to fresh. High pressure building in behind the front will
increase northeast to east winds across the northwestern and
central Caribbean from Sun night through at least Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N74W, to the NW Bahamas, through the
Straits of Florida, to the coast of NW Cuba, into the eastern
sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, to northern Guatemala.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N
northward from 70W westward. Gale-force winds are forecast just to
the north of the area. Expect westerly winds 20 to 30 knots, and
possible gusts to gale-force, and wave heights ranging from 8
feet to 12 feet, on the western side of the cold front, during the
next 48 hours or so.

The wave heights range: from 7 feet to 9 feet from 20N northward
between 30W and 40W; from 7 feet to 8 feet from 07N to 23N from
30W eastward, and from 03N to 09N between 45W and 55W; from 4 feet
to 7 feet elsewhere from 60W eastward; and from 3 feet to 5 feet
between 60W and 70W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 19N to 24N
within 120 nm of the coast of Africa. Fresh NE winds are to the
south and southeast of the line that runs from 31N15W to 25N27W to
21N42W to 21N54W to 23N60W. Strong SW winds, and faster, are from
32N northward between 33W and 44W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb 33N20W high pressure
center, to 26N31W 27N63W 27N71W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, in the area of the surface ridge.

A cold front extends from near 31N75W to the NW Bahamas and to
the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong southwest winds are ahead
of the front north of about 27N. The front will reach from near
31N75W to central Cuba this afternoon, from 31N70W to eastern Cuba
Sat morning, and from 31N64W to the Windward Passage Sun morning.
Strong west to northwest winds are expected behind this front
through Sun. A second cold front will push off the Florida coast
Sat afternoon. This front will bring widespread strong to near
gale-force winds and building seas on Sat and Sun. High pressure
will build over the area early next week which will improve
conditions over most of the forecast waters. This high pressure
will lead to increasing NE to E winds near the Windward Passage
from Mon night through at least Tue night.

$$
mt/ja
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