[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Apr 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W to 13N19W. The ITCZ extends from 01S22W to 01N35W to
the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the ITCZ from 05S to 04N and W of 21W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from southwest Florida near 26N82W to the
northeast Yucatan near 22N87W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted
along and ahead of the front, mostly in the Yucatan Passage, N of
21N and W of 82W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted
across most of the Gulf of Mexico behind the front. Seas range
8 to 10 ft with the highest in the south-central Gulf. High
pressure is building across the western Gulf of Mexico, anchored
by a 1024 mb high near 28N97W. Gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are
noted in this area. The northerly winds should prevent smoke and
haze produced by agricultural fires in Mexico from entering the
Gulf today.

For the forecast, the cold front will exit the basin by this
afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will continue across the southern
Gulf in the wake of the front with conditions improving in this
area by tonight. A second cold front will move across the NE Gulf
this evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected with the front
across the eastern Gulf today through Sat. Fresh to strong E to SE
return flow should set up in the W Gulf late Sat through at least
Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure extends across the eastern and central Caribbean.
This is maintaining an ENE to ESE trade-wind pattern across the
entire basin. Fresh to strong trades with seas at 6 to 8 ft are
present at the S central basin, just N of Colombia. Light to
gentle trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted over the NW basin.
Moderate to fresh trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the
remainder of the Caribbean Sea. In the SW Caribbean, scattered
moderate convection is noted along a trough off the coasts of
Panama and Colombia, S of 11N between 75W and 82W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E trade winds will pulse
late night in the south- central Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia through early next week. A late- season cold front will
reach the Yucatan Channel this morning, then move through the NW
Caribbean today through Sat. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are
expected behind the front in the NW basin. The front will
dissipate by Sun, and winds will become moderate to fresh. High
pressure building in behind the front will increase NE to E winds
across the NW and central Caribbean from Sun night through at
least Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is pushing off the Florida coast from 31N78W to
south of Port Canaveral, FL near 28N80W. A pre-frontal trough is
off the South Florida coast from 27N80W to 26N81W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted near the front and trough, N of
22N78W between 78W and 80W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are
ahead of the front with moderate to fresh winds behind the front.
Seas are up to 8 ft near the front. In the central and eastern
Atlantic, high pressure extends across the area anchored by a 1025
mb high near 30N26W. Light to gentle winds are noted under the
ridge with seas 4 to 6 ft. South of 22N, moderate to fresh
easterly winds prevail with seas 6 to 8 ft. Fresh northeasterly
winds prevail off the Morocco and Western Sahara coast with 6 to 8
ft seas.

For the forecast, the cold front off the Florida coast will
continue moving eastward as it reaches near 31N75W to central Cuba
this afternoon, from 31N70W to eastern Cuba Sat morning, and from
31N64W to the Windward Passage Sun morning. Strong W to NW winds
are expected behind this front through Sun. A second cold front
will push off the Florida coast Sat afternoon. This front will
bring widespread strong to near gale-force winds and building seas
on Sat and Sun. High pressure will build over the area early next
week which will improve conditions over most of the forecast
waters. This high pressure will lead to increasing NE to E winds
near the Windward Passage from Mon night through at least Tue
night.

$$
AReinhart
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