[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Apr 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-
Bissau to 10N21W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is flaring up S of the trough from 07S to the Liberia-Ivory Coast
between 05W and 21W. An ITCZ extends from 01S21W through 01N35W
to NE of Belem, Brazil at EQ46W. Similar convection is seen from
03S to 03N between 21W and the coast of Brazil.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches southwestward from N Florida through near
Tampa across the Yucatan coast near San Felipe, Mexico to NW
Guatemala. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring along
and up to 120 nm SE of the front, including the Yucatan Channel.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
are found ahead of the front over the SE Gulf. A 1023 mb high at
the NW Gulf promotes fresh to strong with locally near-gale
northerly winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft across the NE, central and
SW Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
These northerly winds should prevent smoke and haze produced by
agricultural fires in Mexico from entering the Gulf today.

For the forecast, the cold front will exit the basin by Fri
afternoon. Strong to near gale-force winds will continue near
Veracruz through tonight with the fresh to strong winds winding
down across the Gulf by Fri afternoon. A secondary cold front will
move across the NE Gulf and bring fresh to strong winds to that
area Fri and Sat. Strong E to SE return flow should set up in the
W Gulf late Sat through at least Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Caribbean Sea is located in the SW periphery of the Central
Atlantic surface ridge. This feature is maintaining an ENE to ESE
trade-wind pattern across the entire basin. Fresh to strong trades
with seas at 6 to 8 ft are present at the S central basin, just N
of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft are
noted over the NW basin. Moderate to fresh trades and seas at 4 to
6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to support
pulsing fresh to strong NE to E trades late night in the S central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia for the next several days. A
late-season cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel by Fri
morning, then move through the NW Caribbean Sat, and dissipate by
Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front through
Fri, and become moderate to fresh Fri night through Sun. High
pressure building in behind the front will increase NE to E winds
across the W and central Caribbean from Sun through at least Tue
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pre-frontal trough curves southwestward from off the N Florida
coast to NW Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident
near the SE Atlantic coast of Florida and NW coast of Cuba. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the
basin. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb Azores
High across 31N25W to central Cuba. Fresh to strong S to SW return
flow along with 6 to 8 ft seas are seen N of 27N between 71W and
the Georgia/N Florida coast. For the central Atlantic, light to
gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist N of 23N between 30W and
71W. Moderate to fresh NE trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft are present
near and SW of the Canary Islands, N of 10N between the NW African
coast and 30W. Farther SW, moderate with locally fresh ENE trades
and 5 to 7 ft seas are found from 02N to 20N between 30W and the
Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle SW to NW winds and seas of 4 to 6
ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW winds are preceding a late-
season cold front currently moving off the NE Florida coast. The
front will continue moving eastward as it reaches near 31N75W to
W Cuba Fri morning, from 31N70W to central Cuba Sat morning, and
from 31N63W to E Cuba Sun morning. Strong to near gale W to NW
winds and building seas will develop in the wake of the front on
Sat and Sun. High pressure building in behind the front should
force increasing NE to E winds near the Windward Passage from Mon
night through at least Tue night.

$$

Chan
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