[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Apr 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2255 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

A cold front extends from the Big Bend region of Florida to the E
Bay of Campeche. Satellite-derived wind data earlier today
depicted 35-40 kt NW winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Expect gale-
force NW to N winds and the wave heights building rapidly to 11
feet this evening in the offshore waters of Veracruz. The wind
speeds will diminish below gale-force tonight. Seas will decrease
below 8 ft Fri morning.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 00N22W. A low pressure of 1011 mb is located
near 04N14W. The ITCZ extends from 00N22W to 00N40W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed S of 06N and E
of 23W. Scattered moderate convection is found S of 03N and
between 27W and 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the southwestern corner of the Gulf
of Mexico and for the waters offshore Veracruz in Mexico.

The aforementioned cold front and diurnal heating across the
peninsula of Florida are producing showers and thunderstorms
affecting the eastern Gulf, mainly ahead of the front. Behind the
cold front, a dry continental airmass maintains fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Scatterometer data from earlier today and
latest surface observations indicate that fresh to strong
northerly winds prevail behind the front, and similar but
southerly winds are noted ahead of the front, primarily N of 25N.
Seas behind the front and S of 28N are 8-11 ft, while 5-8 ft are
prevalent in the rest of the Gulf behind the front. Ahead of the
front, 2-5 ft seas are prevalent.

Areas of haze, that are being generated by agricultural fires in
Mexico and northern Central America, are reducing the visibility
along and offshore parts of the SW and west central Gulf of
Mexico, to the east of the cold front. It is possible that the
fires may grow, as the front brings strong winds.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from the Big Bend area of
Florida to the Mexican state of Tabasco. Gale-force NW winds
offshore of Veracruz should continue through this evening.
Elsewhere, strong to near gale N winds prevail west of the front.
The cold front will continue to move southeastward and exit the
Gulf of Mexico Fri morning. High pressure will build in the wake
of the front through the weekend. Strong E to SE return flow
should set up in the W Gulf late Sat through at least Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Caribbean Sea is located in the southwestern periphery of the
Azores high and this environment of subsidence maintains fairly
tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to strong trades are found in
the south-central Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds
occurring offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes
prevail in the rest of the basin. Seas of 5-8 ft are present in
the eastern and central Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring
offshore NW Colombia. Seas of 4-6 ft are noted in the western
Caribbean, with the highest seas observed off northern Belize.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area will support
fresh to strong NE to E trades in the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia late nights and early mornings for
the next several days. A late-season cold front will reach the
Yucatan Channel Fri morning, then move through the NW Caribbean
Sat, before dissipating Sun. High pressure building in behind the
front will force increasing NE to E winds across the W and
central Caribbean from Sun through at least Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough ahead of the cold front in the Gulf of Mexico extends
from 30N79W to the Tampa area. Strong showers and thunderstorms
are observed N of 26N and W of 72W. Fresh to strong SW winds are
found N of 26N and W of 70W. Seas in this area are 5-7 ft.

A 1027 mb high pressure system located near the Azores dominates
the rest of the tropical Atlantic, permitting fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong N-NE winds are present
E of 27W, with the strongest winds primarily occurring near the
Moroccan coast. Seas in this region are 6-9 ft. The pressure
gradient between the Azores high and lower pressures in the deep
tropics foments a large region of moderate to fresh trades
between the Lesser Antilles and 27W. Seas are 6-8 ft in the area
described. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and
seas of 5-7 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW winds are preceding a late-
season cold front that will move off the coast of the SE U.S. this
evening. The front will reach from near 31N75W to W Cuba Fri
morning, from 31N70W to central Cuba Sat morning, from 31N63W to E
Cuba Sun morning, from 31N56W to E Cuba Mon morning, and from
25N55W to Hispaniola Tue morning. Strong to near gale W to NW
winds will develop in the wake of the front on Sat and Sun. High
pressure building in behind the front should force increasing NE
to E winds near the Windward Passage from Mon night through at
least Tue night

$$
DELGADO
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