[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Apr 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 00N30W
to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ between
26W and 46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC: a cold front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to
the north-central Gulf near 28N89W. No precipitation is
currently noted. Recent buoy observations report moderate to
fresh NNW winds behind the front with seas noted to be up to 10
ft offshore the Tampa Bay area. Closer to the northern Gulf
coast behind the boundary, seas are 3 to 5 ft. Ahead of the
boundary over the eastern Gulf, a recent scatterometer pass
found fresh to strong NW winds, where seas are 6 to 9 ft.
Elsewhere, a 1023 high pressure center is near 25N93W, allowing
for gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow west of 90W surrounding
the center. Recent altimeter data noted 4 to 6 ft seas in the SW
Gulf and 1 to 3 ft seas in the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will quickly move southward
across the eastern Gulf today with fresh to strong winds
following it. These winds will diminish by tonight as the front
exits the Gulf. Fresh to strong east to southeast return flow is
expected in the western Gulf tonight and will continue through
Wed afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A slow moving cold front currently extends from east- central
Cuba to northern Honduras with fresh to strong N winds behind
it. Mainly strong winds are within 60 nm offshore the Yucatan
Peninsula. The winds are allowing for 6 to 8 ft seas within the
Yucatan Channel and NW portion of the basin, west of 83W.
Scattered showers may still be within 60 nm of this boundary.
Elsewhere, recent scatterometer data notes fresh to strong winds
within 150 nm offshore Colombia, where seas are 6 to 8 ft.
Gentle to moderate winds are noted in the eastern and
north-central portions of the basin, where seas are mainly
between 5 and 6 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds
will pulse tonight in the south-central Caribbean near the coast
of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will remain steady Sun
through Wed night. The cold front will move across the rest of
the northwestern Caribbean today and tonight, then become
stationary from eastern Cuba to the northeast part of Honduras
by Sun and dissipate by early Sun evening. Winds will diminish
to moderate to fresh speeds by tonight. High pressure building
in behind the front will increase northeast to east winds across
the northwestern and central Caribbean from Sun night through at
least Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from NW of Bermuda southwestward across
31N71W to the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms continue along and up to 80 nm SE of the front
N of 25N. Fresh to strong southwest winds are ahead of the
front, with fresh to strong westerly winds behind the front,
north of about 28N. A second cold front extends from near 31N77W
to inland central Florida. Recent buoy observations found fresh
to strong westerly winds and seas up to 10 ft behind this front.

The Atlantic ridge stretches southwestward from a 1022 mb high
centered near 25N37W to the eastern Greater Antilles. Light to
gentle winds with 4 to 7 ft seas related to this feature are
present N of 20N between 20W and 65W. South of 20N and west of
30W to the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE trades and seas
of 6 to 8 ft continue. Scatterometer data from this morning
noted moderate northerly winds surrounding the Canary Islands.

For the forecast, the front will reach from near 31N68W to the
southeastern Bahamas and to the eastern tip of Cuba this
evening, and from near 31N64W to 25N70W and to the Windward
Passage Sun morning. Strong winds are expected to continue ahead
and behind this front through Sun. The secondary cold front will
be followed by strong to gale-force winds and building seas
today through Sun as it merges with the first front by Sun. High
pressure will build over the area early next week which will
improve conditions over most of the forecast waters. This high
pressure will lead to increasing northeast to east winds near
the Windward Passage from Mon night through Wed night.

$$
Mora
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