[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Apr 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front in the far NW Gulf of
Mexico from near the border of Texas and Louisiana to near
Brownsville, Texas is ushering in fresh to strong northerly winds
and building seas behind it. Winds will increase to near gale-force
with frequent gusts to gale-force late tonight, with sustained
gale-force winds offshore of Veracruz, Mexico by sunrise Thu
through Thu afternoon. Winds will diminish below gale-force by Thu
evening, with conditions continuing to improve thereafter as high
pressure settles into the area. Seas will peak around 10 ft during
the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 01S26W to
the northern coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N and 07N between 14W
and 17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for information on a
Gale Warning in effect for areas offshore Veracruz, Mexico.

Moderate to fresh southerly winds, locally strong near the Yucatan
Channel, continue over the Gulf east of 90W ahead of a cold front
now entering the far NW waters and extending from near the border
of Texas and Louisiana to near Brownsville, Texas. A pre-frontal
trough extends from 30N88W to 26N86W. Light and variable winds
are elsewhere east of the front to 90W. The southerly wind flow is
bringing warm moist air northward over the cooler shelf waters of
the north-central and NE Gulf, resulting areas of reduced
visibility in dense fog. Areas of haze generated by agricultural
fires over Mexico and northern Central America is resulting in
reduced visibility along and offshore of portions of the SW and
west-central Gulf ahead of the front. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in
the southerly flow in the eastern Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft in the
western Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Florida Big
Bend to the central Bay of Campeche by Thu morning then move
southeast and exit the basin by Fri morning. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front through the weekend. Areas of smoke
from agricultural fires could continue to reduce visibilities
over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between low pressure over northern Colombia and high
pressure north of the area is maintaining moderate to fresh
easterly winds across the basin, except locally strong in the
south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia and in the NW
Caribbean near the Yucatan Channel and just northeast of the Gulf
of Honduras. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in the Caribbean, except 6
to 7 ft in the aforementioned areas of stronger winds. With
generally dry air aloft, no significant convection is occurring.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to
support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near
the coast of Colombia into tonight. Fresh to strong winds just
northeast of the Gulf of Honduras will continue into Thu.
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold front will
reach the Yucatan Channel by Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds
and building seas to around 8 ft will spill through the Yucatan
Channel into the NW Caribbean behind the front Fri, diminishing
and subsiding into the weekend as the front weakens. High pressure
will build down across the NW Caribbean from the northwest by the
end of the weekend into early next week helping to increase winds
back to fresh to locally strong in the NW Caribbean, and through
the Windward Passage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure ridging extends from 1021 mb high pressure east of
Bermuda near 33N55W to across the western Atlantic and to south
Florida. This ridging is allowing for moderate to locally fresh
southerly flow offshore Florida and the Bahamas. Elsewhere west of
55W, winds are gentle to moderate under the ridging. Seas are 4 to
6 ft in mainly NW-N swell east of 65W, and 3 to 5 ft west of 65W,
except locally to 6 ft along 31N between 75W and 79W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms have developed offshore of Florida to
the NW Bahamas associated with a mid-level trough.

Farther east, high pressure ridging extending from the 1025 mb
Azores high near 34N23W dominates the waters north of the ITCZ.
The tail end of a dissipating stationary front extends into the
area through 31N50W to 29N59W. Scattered showers are possible near
this decaying boundary. Fresh to strong winds are noted offshore
and along the west coast of Africa from 18N to 26N and east of
21W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in NE swell from 15N to 25N east of 37W.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted
south of 22N, with mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 22N under the ridging.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S winds offshore N
Florida should generally continue into Thu night, before a cold
front moves offshore the SE U.S. This front will reach from 31N75W
through the NW Bahamas and western Cuba by Fri morning, and from
31N68W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Sat morning. Strong
NW winds will develop offshore N Florida behind the front this
weekend as the pressure gradient tightens over the SE CONUS. The
front and pressure gradient behind it will weaken early next week
allowing for diminishing winds and gradually subsiding seas.

Little change is forecast for the waters east of 55W through the
next several days.

$$
Lewitsky/Nepaul
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net