[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070404
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Apr 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front in the NW Gulf of
Mexico is ushering in strong northerly winds and building seas.
Frequent gusts to gale-force are expected in the NW Gulf early
this morning, with sustained gale-force winds offshore of
Veracruz, Mexico by sunrise Thu through Thu afternoon. Winds will
diminish below gale-force by Thu evening, with conditions
continuing to improve thereafter as high pressure settles into the
area. Seas will peak around 10 ft during the strongest winds.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to
01S25W to the northern coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered strong
convection over Sierra Leone and Liberia is drifting into the far
eastern Atlantic. Isolated moderate convection is noted from the
ITCZ northward to 03N, between 30W and South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for information on a
Gale Warning in effect for areas offshore Veracruz, Mexico.

A cold front extends across the NW Gulf of Mexico from SW
Louisiana to NE Mexico. Buoys are reporting fresh to strong
northerly winds behind the front with moderate, building seas.
Ahead of the front, winds are gentle to moderate in the central
Atlantic and moderate to locally fresh in the eastern Atlantic.
Seas are moderate throughout the basin. The southerly flow is
bringing warm, moist air over the cooler shelf waters of the NE
Gulf, resulting in areas of dense fog. Areas of haze generated by
agricultural fires over Mexico and northern Central America are
reducing the visibility along and offshore portions of the SW and
west-central Gulf ahead of the front. As the front brings strong
winds and dry air, fog will dissipate while fires may grow.

For the forecast, a cold front extends over the NW waters from W
Louisiana to N Mexico. Strong N winds, with frequent gusts to
gale force and building seas will follow the front, which will
reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche by
Thu morning. Gale force winds will develop offshore Veracruz,
Mexico on Thu morning, and continue through Thu evening. The cold
front will move SE and exit the basin by Fri morning. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front through the weekend.
Areas of smoke from agricultural fires could reduce visibilities
over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between low pressure over northern Colombia and high
pressure north of the area is maintaining moderate to fresh
easterly winds across the basin, except locally strong near the
coast of Colombia, the Gulf of Venezuela, and just northeast of
the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in the Caribbean,
except up to 8 ft near Colombia. With generally dry air aloft, no
significant convection is occurring.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia through Thu night before diminishing. Fresh to
strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue through Thu
night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold
front will reach the Yucatan Channel by Fri morning, then move
through the NW Caribbean this weekend.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging extends from a 1023 mb high pressure east of Bermuda near
32N52W across the western Atlantic to south Florida. Winds are
gentle along the ridge axis, increasing to fresh southerlies over
the offshore waters of central and NE Florida. Seas are currently
less than 6 ft across the western Atlantic. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted off central and NE Florida. Just north of
our discussion area, severe thunderstorms have emerged offshore
Georgia and South Carolina.

High pressure dominates the central subtropical Atlantic, with
gentle winds along 30N, increasing to moderate easterlies south
of 25N. Seas in the area are generally moderate. The pressure
gradient increases in the eastern Atlantic with an area of fresh
to strong NE winds observed on scatterometer data off the coast of
Western Sahara and Mauritania. These winds are generating an area
of rough seas in the eastern Atlantic, from 15N to 25N, between
the African continent and 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S winds offshore N
Florida will continue into Thu, ahead of a cold front that will
move off the coast of the SE U.S. The front will reach from near
31N75W to western Cuba Fri morning, from 31N68W to central Cuba
Sat morning, from 29N65W to E Cuba Sun morning, and from 24N65W to
E Cuba Mon morning. Strong NW winds will develop offshore N
Florida behind the front this weekend.

$$
FLYNN
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