[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061655
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Apr 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...Special Features...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf this afternoon, bringing
strong N winds and building seas as it moves southeastward.
Gales are forecast to develop Thu afternoon and continue through
Thu evening for waters offshore Veracruz, Mexico. As high
pressure settles into the Bay of Campeche Fri morning,
conditions will improve. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are possible in the
gale warning area.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 03N16W. The ITCZ then continues from 03N16W
to 01S30W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from the 01N to 06N between 10W and 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for information on a
Gale Warning in effect for areas offshore Veracruz, Mexico.

Moderate to fresh southerly winds continue over the Gulf ahead
of an incoming cold front, with locally strong breezes in the
southeast part of the basin. The southerly wind flow is bringing
warm moist air northward over the cooler shelf waters of the
northern Gulf, resulting in fog. Dense fog, with visibility
below 1 nm, is being reported within 60 to 90 miles of the Texas
coast. An elongated surface trough extends along the eastern
coast of Mexico to the central Bay of Campeche, however, no
significant weather is associated with this feature. Seas are 3
to 5 ft, except within the central Gulf seas are up to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the dense fog along the Texas coast is
forecast to persist until early this afternoon. The fresh to
locally strong S winds in the southeast Gulf will diminish
tonight. The cold front will move off the Texas coast this
afternoon. Strong N winds and building seas will follow the
front, which will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central
Bay of Campeche by Thu morning. Gales will develop on Thu
morning offshore Veracruz, Mexico, and continue through the
evening. The cold front will move SE and exit the basin by Fri
morning. High pressure will move E across the northern Gulf Fri
through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between low pressure over Colombia and high
pressure north of the area is maintaining moderate to fresh E
winds across the basin, noted in scatterometer imagery. Strong
winds are occurring within 60 nm offshore Colombia and in the
Gulf of Honduras, south of 18N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the
Caribbean, except 6 to 8 ft in the aforementioned areas of
strong winds. With generally dry air aloft, no significant
convection is occurring.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia into tonight. Fresh to strong winds
in the Gulf of Honduras will continue into Thu. Moderate to fresh
winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold front will reach the Yucatan
Channel by Fri morning, then move through the NW Caribbean this
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure ridging extends across the western Atlantic to
south Florida, allowing for moderate to fresh southerly flow
offshore Florida and the Bahamas, noted in a recent
scatterometer pass. Areas of locally strong winds are noted
within 90 nm of the Lesser Antilles. Seas in this area are
generally 4 to 6 ft.

Farther east, high pressure ridging extending from the Azores
high dominates the waters north of 23N. Scatterometer data from
this morning notes fresh to strong winds from 15N to 25N and
east of 35W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Another area of fresh to
strong winds is noted south of 20N between 30W and the Lesser
Antilles, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, flow is gentle to
moderate with 4 to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh winds offshore Florida
should generally continue into Thu night, before a cold front
moves offshore the SE U.S. This front will reach from 31N72W
throug the central Bahamas and central Cuba Fri night. Strong NW
winds will develop offshore N Florida behind the front this
weekend.

$$
Mora
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