[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060416
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Apr 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...Special Features...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Warning...

A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf on Wednesday,
accompanied by strong northerly winds and rough seas. As this
system reaches the Bay of Campeche, winds will likely attain
minimal gale-force offshore Veracruz, Mexico Thursday afternoon
and evening. High pressure will build in behind the front,
causing conditions to gradually improve Friday.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 02N17W. The ITCZ then continues from 02N17W
to 02S44W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 01N to 04N between 15W and 17W, and from the
equator to 04N between 26W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between high pressure in the Atlantic and a 998 mb
low over central Mexico is generating moderate southerly flow and
4-6 ft seas across the majority of the basin. Oil platforms in
the NW Gulf are reporting decreasing visibility tonight due to
warm, moist southerly flow overrunning relatively cooler shelf
water. The fog is currently patchy in the offshore zones and dense
over the cooler coastal water.

For the forecast, patchy fog will continue through Wed. Fresh to
strong S winds will prevail mainly across the south-central Gulf
until the next cold front exits Texas on Wed. Strong northerly
winds and building seas will follow the front forecast to reach
from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche by Thu
morning. Gales are likely to occur offshore Veracruz, Mexico, Thu
afternoon and evening. This system will move SE and exit the basin
by Fri morning. High pressure will move E across the northern
Gulf this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between low pressure over Colombia and high pressure
north of the area is maintaining moderate to fresh winds across
the basin. Winds are mainly from the east, with southeasterlies in
the NW Caribbean. Locally strong winds are found near the coasts
of Colombia and Honduras. Altimeter and buoy data confirm seas
are generally in the 4-6 ft range, with up to 8 ft likely in the
areas of strong winds.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia through Wed. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf
of Honduras will continue into Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will
prevail elsewhere. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel by
Fri morning, then move through the NW Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A fast moving squall line has entered the Atlantic from the SE
US, brining heavy thunderstorm activity off NE Florida. Southerly
winds in the western subtropical Atlantic are strong north of 30N,
building 5-7 ft seas. A weak cold front in the west-central
Atlantic separates two high pressure centers with moderate winds
behind and gentle winds ahead. In the central Atlantic, gentle
easterly winds along 30N increase to moderate to fresh south of
22N. The pressure gradient is stronger in the eastern Atlantic
with moderate to fresh NE winds prevailing. Altimeter data
confirms seas are generally moderate throughout the western and
central Atlantic, with rough conditions in the eastern third of
the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S winds offshore N
Florida should generally continue through Thu, before a cold
front moves offshore the SE U.S. This front will reach from 31N72W
through the central Bahamas and central Cuba Fri. Strong NW winds
will develop offshore N Florida behind the front this weekend.

$$
Flynn
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