[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Apr 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...Special Features...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf this afternoon, with strong N
winds and building seas expected as it moves SE through the Gulf.
Gales are forecast to develop Thu afternoon and continuing through
Thu evening for waters offshore Veracruz, Mexico.  As high pressure
settles into the Bay of Campeche Fri morning, conditions will
improve. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are possible in the gale warning area.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 02N17W. The ITCZ then continues from 02N17W to
00N22W, extending along the Equator to near the coast of Brazil at
44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 04N
between 26W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning in effect for areas offshore Veracruz, Mexico.

With a 1000 mb low pressure centered near Tampico, Mexico, fresh to
strong S winds are being pulled northward through much of the Gulf,
with the highest winds just N of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are
generally 4 to 6 ft, locally higher just N of the Yucatan Peninsula,
with some 2 to 4 ft seas in the SW Gulf. The southerly wind flow is
bringing warm moist air northward, and when this environment reaches
the cooler shelf waters of the northern Gulf, fog has developed.
Dense fog, with visibility below 1 mile, is being reported within 60
to 90 miles of the Texas coast. No significant convection is
occurring in the Gulf of Mexico this morning.

Patchy fog will persist in the northern Gulf into tonight. Fresh to
locally strong S winds in the south-central Gulf will diminish
tonight. A cold front will move off the Texas coast this afternoon.
Strong N winds and building seas will follow the front, which will
reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche by
Thu morning. Gales will develop Thu afternoon offshore Veracruz,
Mexico, and continue through the evening. The cold front will move
SE and exit the basin by Fri morning. High pressure will move E
across the northern Gulf Fri through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...


The gradient between low pressure over Colombia and high pressure
north of the area is maintaining moderate to fresh mainly SE winds
across the basin. Strong winds are occurring offshore Colombia and
in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the Caribbean, except
6 to 8 ft in the aforementioned areas of strong winds. With
generally dry area aloft, no significant convection is occurring
this morning.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh
to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia into tonight. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras
will continue into Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail
elsewhere. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel by Fri
morning, then move through the NW Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The overnight squall line offshore NE Florida has diminished early
this morning, although numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection remains N of 28N between 72W and 78W.  Outside of
thunderstorm activity in this zone, strong southerly winds prevail.
Elsewhere for areas W of 70W, moderate to fresh S winds dominate.
Seas W of 70W average 4 to 6 ft, although 6 to 8 ft seas are
affecting the areas experiencing strong winds, and 1 to 3 ft seas
are present in the shallow waters surrounding the Bahamas.

To the E of 70W, for areas N of 23N, high pressure is the dominate
weather features, although two high centered are separated by a weak
cold front extending from W of the Azores to around 28N60W.
Convection along this boundary is confined to areas N of 28N. Winds
are gentle to moderate in the areas influenced by the high pressure.
Farther S in the Tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh trades
prevail. Seas for most areas W of 70W are 5 to 7 ft, although a zone
of 8 to 10 ft seas in decaying NE swell extends from 17N to 26N E of
40W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S winds offshore N
Florida should generally continue into Thu night, before a cold
front moves offshore the SE U.S. This front will reach from 31N72W
through the central Bahamas and central Cuba Fri night. Strong NW
winds will develop offshore N Florida behind the front this weekend.

$$
KONARIK
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