[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052236
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Apr 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 03N16W. The ITCZ then continues from 03N16W
to 01N21W, and then along the equator to the coast of Brazil.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
01N to 04N between 15W and 17W, and from the equator to 04N
between 27W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The pressure field over the Gulf of Mexico is rather diffuse,
supporting fair weather over most of the basin. At this time,
convection associated with a frontal system north of the area
remains just inland over the SE United States, but a few showers
or thunderstorms are possible this evening in the NE Gulf. The
latest surface data indicates moderate S to SW flow in the eastern
Gulf, increasing to fresh and strong speeds in the central Gulf,
from the Yucatan Channel to offshore of SE Louisiana to the
western Florida Panhandle, along the periphery of high pressure
centered off the SE US coast. Gentle S flow prevails in the
western Gulf. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the area of fresh to strong
winds, and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S winds will prevail mainly
across the central Gulf until the next cold front exits Texas on
Wed. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the
front forecast to reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central
Bay of Campeche by Thu morning. This system will move SE and exit
the basin by Fri morning. High pressure will move east across the
northern Gulf this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The weak pressure gradient between the Colombian Low and high
pressure north of the area is producing mainly moderate to locally
fresh trades across the basin, highest in the south-central
Caribbean and the NW Caribbean northeast of the Gulf of Honduras
through the Yucatan Channel. Scattered moderate convection is now
confined to along the coast and inland of Panama and northern
Colombia. Elsewhere, patches of low level moisture embedded in
the trade winds may produce isolated early this evening. Seas are
3 to 6 ft across most of the Caribbean, peaking at 7 ft off the
coast of Colombia and northeast of the Gulf of Honduras. In the
lee of Cuba and in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands, seas are
2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia tonight, and again Wed night. Fresh to strong
winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue into Thu. Moderate to
fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold front will reach the
Yucatan Channel by Fri morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from 31N57W to 27N66W.
Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is along and east
of the front, north of 27N. Northwest of the front, 1022 mb high
pressure is centered just northwest of Bermuda near 33N66W. In
the western Atlantic north of the front, gentle to moderate NE to
E winds prevail, except moderate to fresh west of 76W where the
pressure gradient is tight. South of the front, across the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic, moderate to locally fresh
anticyclonic flow continues along the southern extent of the
subtropical high pressure north of the area, except locally strong
near the coast of Africa from 19N to 26N and from 10N to 15N.
Winds are light along a ridge axis that extends from 31N37W to
25N60W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in northerly swell north of 27N and
west of the front, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere north of 20N and west
of 55W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in mainly NE to E swell elsewhere west
of 35W, except 4 to 6 ft under the mentioned ridge axis where the
lighter winds are. Seas are 7 to 9 ft east of 35W in mixed NE and
NW swell, highest north of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate on Wed. Fresh to strong S winds will develop offshore N
Florida this evening, in advance of the next cold front, that
will move offshore the SE U.S. on Thu. This front will reach from
31N75W to the NW Bahamas and western Cuba by Fri morning. Strong
NW winds are likely offshore N Florida behind the front this
weekend.

$$
Lewitsky
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