[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to
01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N
between 11W and 22W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 05S to 04N between 30W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends west from southern
Florida to 26N86W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
south of the front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the
Gulf waters. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range west of 85W, and 1-3 ft
east of 85W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop
over the central Gulf tonight into Tue ahead of the next cold
front forecast to enter the Gulf waters on Wed. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. This
system is expected to reach the SE waters on Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail over the south central
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in
the 5-6 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over
the north central and eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the
western Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia tonight, and again Tue night. Fresh to strong
winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras by this evening and
continue into Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail
elsewhere. A cold front is likely to approach the Yucatan Channel
Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from just east of Bermuda to near 25N71W
where it becomes stationary to Miami, Florida. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the front. Moderate
to fresh winds prevail within 120 nm east of the front and north
of 26N. Light to gentle winds are noted west of the front. High
pressure of 1024 mb is centered near 30N42W. Light winds are in
the vicinity of the high. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere
north of 15N and west of 45W. Moderate to fresh winds are
elsewhere over the discussion waters, reaching strong speeds
north of 25N and east of 30W.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will move east, and
become stationary again from 28N65W to the SE Bahamas by Tue
morning, then move E of area on Wed. Fresh to strong southerly
winds will develop offshore northern Florida on Tue, in advance
of the next cold front, that will move offshore the SE U.S. by
Thu night.

$$
AL
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