[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Apr 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to
00N30W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
from 02N to 05N between 13W and 18W. Similar convection is noted
from 03S to 00N between 30W and 44W, as well as from 00N to 04N
between 46W and the coast of Brazil.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front reaches from the Bahamas, across south
Florida, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. An area of
thunderstorms is noted from 26N to 27N between 85W and 87W.
Moderate to fresh SE winds cover a majority of the basin, except
for east of 86W where E winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 3
to 5 ft in the central and NW Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft in the NE and
SW Gulf.

The stationary front over South Florida will dissipate by this
evening. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop over the
central Gulf tonight into Tue ahead of the next cold front
forecast to enter the Gulf waters on Wed. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. This
system is expected to reach the SE waters on Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the central
tropical Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is allowing
for fresh trade winds in the eastern and south-central Caribbean,
indicated in scatterometer data. Seas range from 4 to 6 ft.
Elsewhere in the NW Caribbean, moderate to fresh SE winds are
mainly confined to the Gulf of Honduras, while gentle winds
prevail in the lee of Cuba. Seas are 2 to 4 ft.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia
tonight, and again Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will develop
in the Gulf of Honduras by this evening and continue into Thu.
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold front is
likely to approach the Yucatan Channel Fri

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from just east Bermuda to the central
Bahamas where it transitions to a stationary front to south
Florida. Showers and thunderstorms are occurring along the
stationary front between the Bahamas and South Florida. Recent
scatterometer data notes moderate N winds behind the cold front
and gentle E winds elsewhere west of 72W, where seas are 3 to 5
ft. Moderate to fresh S winds are ahead of the boundary, where
seas are 4 to 6 ft.

Farther east, a 1025 mb high pressure center is located near
29N44W. North of 26N between 35W and 55W, scatterometer data
notes gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. South of 26N between
30W and 55W, fresh NE-E winds prevail. Fresh to strong N winds
are north of a surface trough stretching from the Canary Islands
to near 26N28W. Elsewhere, moderate winds prevail. Seas are
mainly 4 to 6 ft from 10N to 30N and west of 50W.  6 to 8 ft
seas are noted elsewhere, except from 20N to 31N and east of
35W, seas range from 9 to 12 ft, with heights up to 13 ft NE of
the Canary Islands.

The cold front will continue to move east, and reach out of the
area by Tue night while the stationary part of the front will
dissipate by this evening. Fresh to strong southerly winds will
develop offshore northern Florida on Tue, in advance of the next
cold front, that will move offshore the SE U.S. by Thu night.

$$
Mora
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