[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050406
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Apr 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to
the coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Isolated moderate convection is
noted from 05S to 04N between 30W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak warm front in the NE Gulf extends from near Tampa Bay, FL
to SE LA. Scattered convection is mainly weak along the boundary,
though there are some thunderstorms observed near the mouth of
the Mississippi River. Winds are generally moderate from the SE
across the basin, with slight seas.

For the forecast, the warm front will drift N overnight and
dissipate Tue along the NE Gulf coast. Fresh to strong S winds are
developing in the SW and central Gulf. These winds will prevail
until a cold front exits Texas Wed afternoon. Strong northerly
winds and building seas will follow the front. This cold front
will move SE and exit the basin Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail over the south central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Moderate seas of 4-6 ft are observed in the eastern
and central Caribbean. Slight seas of 2-4 ft are observed in the
Northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia through Tue. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf
of Honduras will continue into Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will
prevail elsewhere. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel
Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N60W to 25N70W where it becomes
stationary and continues to south Florida. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the cold front. An isolated strong
burst of convection is noted off the Florida coast. Outside of
thunderstorm activity, winds are generally gentle to moderate in
the western Atlantic on either side of the front with slight to
moderate seas. In the central Atlantic, a 1026 mb high pressure is
centered near 30N44W. Light winds surround the high, increasing
to moderate to fresh south of 25N and east of 35W. Rough seas are
observed in the eastern subtropical Atlantic with moderate
conditions elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 65W, the front will become stationary by
Tue morning, then gradually dissipate into Wed. Fresh to strong
southerly winds will develop offshore northern Florida Tue
afternoon, in advance of the next cold front, that will move
offshore the SE U.S. by Thu night. Strong NW winds are possible
offshore N Florida behind the front this weekend.

$$
FLYNN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net