[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032229
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough passes through the Guinea/Sierra Leone border
near 09N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 02N20W to 01N34W to
02N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of the monsoon
trough axis near the coast of Liberia, N of 04N and E of 18W.
Scattered moderate convection is also noted along the ITCZ from
02S to 04N between 21W and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends westward from south of Tampa Bay, Florida
near 27N82W to the central Gulf near 26N87W. The tail-end of the
boundary is stalled to the western Gulf near 26N95W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection, including frequent
lightning, is occurring near and up to 100 nm S of the cold front.
A surface trough extends along the eastern Bay of Campeche with
showers in the area. Moderate easterly winds with seas 3-4 ft are
found N of the frontal boundary across the N Gulf. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds and seas 2-3 ft are seen S of the
frontal boundary across the S Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche
and Florida Strait.

For the forecast, the weak cold front will drift southeast and
dissipate over the SE Gulf tonight. Southerly flow will return
through the basin after the boundary dissipates. The next cold
front is forecast to move off the Texas coast midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the SW Caribbean along the
coast of Colombia and Panama, S of 11N between 75W and 82W.
Otherwise, a ENE to ESE trade- wind pattern continues across the
entire basin. Gentle to moderate winds and seas 3-4 ft are seen
over the NW basin. Fresh to strong trades and seas 6-8 ft are
noted in the south-central basin N of Colombia. Gentle to moderate
trades with seas 4-6 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean
Basin.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia through this evening. Fresh to strong winds will
develop in the Gulf of Honduras late Mon and continue through Wed
night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold
front may approach the Yucatan Channel by the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the waters near 31N76W to south of Melbourne,
Florida near 28N80W. A pre-frontal trough is noted east of the
front from 31N70W to Miami, Florida near 26N80W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted off the Florida coast and across the
northern Bahamas near the front and trough, N of 24N between 67W
and 81W. Fresh to strong winds are noted ahead of the trough. Seas
in the SW N Atlantic range 4-6 ft and seas are up to 8 ft near the
strong winds. In the central Atlantic, a 1021 mb high pressure is
located near 28N44W with surface ridging extending across the
area. Light winds are noted under the high pressure with seas 4-6
ft. Moderate to fresh winds are S of 23N in the Tropical Atlantic
with 6-8 ft easterly swell.

In the eastern Atlantic, a weakening cold front curves
southwestward from near the Canary Islands near 31N14W to 22N23W
to 19N37W. Strong NW winds are noted behind the front with seas
12-15 ft. A trough is noted south of the front from 21N23W to
18N32W and a shearline from 17N33W to 17N46W to 19N57W. Fresh to
locally strong SW winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are occurring east
of the Canary Islands, N of 23N between the Sahara- Morrocco
coast and 20W.

For the forecast W of 45W, the cold front off the Florida coast
will move east and gradually dissipate through Tue night. The next
cold front is forecast to move off the SE U.S. coast Thu night.

$$
AReinhart
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