[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Apr 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough passes through the Guinea-Sierra Leone border
to 06N18W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of the trough
axis near the coast of Liberia and Ivory Coast. An ITCZ stretches
near the Equator from 01N19W to 01N43W. Scattered moderate
convection is present from the Equator to 04N between 20W and
50W/NW Brazilian coast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends westward from central Florida to SE of New
Orleans at 28N87W, Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring near and up to 90 nm S of the cold front. Scattered
showers are seen up to 70 nm N, and up to 90 nm S of the
stationary front. A surface trough is triggering similar
conditions over the N Bay of Campeche. Moderate easterly winds
with seas at 3 to 4 ft are found near the frontal boundary across
the N Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 3
ft are seen S of the frontal boundary across the S Gulf, including
the Bay of Campeche and Florida Strait.

For the forecast, the cold front over the E central Gulf will
drift southeast and dissipate over the SE Gulf tonight. Southerly
flow will return through the basin after the boundary dissipates.
The next cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast
midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Trade-wind showers are forming along the S coast of Hispaniola.
Otherwise, a ENE to ESE trade-wind pattern continues across the
entire basin. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are
are seen over the NW basin. Fresh to strong trades and seas at 6
to 8 ft exist at the S central basin N of Colombia. Gentle to
moderate trades and seas with 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of
the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh
to strong winds in the S central Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia today. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the Gulf of
Honduras late Mon and continue through Wed night. Moderate to
fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold front may approach the
Yucatan Channel by the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves west-southwestward from off the Carolina coast
to near Melbourne, Florida. Scattered showers are found near and
up to 130 nm S of the front. A surface trough extends southwestward
from 29N76W through the NW Bahamas to the Florida Strait.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident near and up to 60
nm SE of this feature. Farther E, a weakening cold front curves
southwestward from near the Canary Islands through 23N24W to
12N37W. Scattered showers are seen along and up to 70 nm SE of the
front. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Strong to near-gale westerly winds with 13 to 15 ft seas in NW
swell are present just W of Canary Islands behind the cold front,
N of 25N between 21W and 36W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and
seas at 7 to 9 ft are occurring near the Canary Islands, N of 23N
between the Sahara-Morrocco coast and 20W. Fresh to strong
southerly winds with seas at 7 to 9 ft are found W and SW of
Bermuda, N of 29N between 66W and 72W. Gentle to moderate with
locally fresh ENE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas in trade-wind swell
are from the Equator to 21N between 30W and 60W/Lesser Antilles.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 45W, a cold front over the northern waters
will move east and gradually dissipate through Tue night. The next
cold front is forecast to move off the SE U.S. coast Thu night.

$$

Chan
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