[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning:

A 999 mb low pressure is centered midway between the Azores and
Canary Islands, with a cold front extending SW from the low to
23N36W. A pre-frontal trough is noted stretching from the Canary
Islands to 19N32W to 18N54W. Although significant convection
associated with these features is confined to areas N of 32N, gale
force winds are occurring in the Irving area of Meteo-France
forecast area. Seas N of the cold front are 12 to 14 ft, with 8-12
ft seas for areas N of the trough. As the low weakens and moves
farther SE, conditions should improve this morning and gales
should end. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast that is
issued by Meteo- France, at: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, then continues to 01N19N. The ITCZ stretches
along the Equator from 19W to 43W. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 00N to 02N between 07W and 10W,
and from 02N to 05N between 40W and 43W. Scattered moderate
convection is ongoing from the Equator to 03N between 20N and 27W
and from 00N to 03N between 32W and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure near Melbourne,
Florida, to 25N90W. A weak surface trough has moved E across the
southern Florida Peninsula and is now in the Atlantic. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 24N to 27N, E
of 87W, including South Florida. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
occurring N of the cold front, with mainly gentle winds elsewhere
in the basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the far SW
and far E Gulf.

The cold front will drift southeast and dissipate over the SE
Gulf tonight. Southerly flow will return through the basin after
the boundary dissipates. The next cold front is likely to move off
Texas Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak high pressure and tranquil conditions dominate the basin.
Fresh tradewinds are noted in in the south-central Caribbean, with
mainly moderate winds elsewhere. In the NW Carribbean, gentle
winds prevail, except in the Gulf of Honduras, where moderate E
winds are ongoing. Wave heights across most of the basin are 4 to
6 ft, except 6 to 8 ft offshore Colombia. In the NW basin, 2 to 4
ft seas dominate, with some seas to 5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras.

High pressure centered north of the area will support fresh
to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia today. Fresh to strong winds are likely to develop in
the Gulf of Honduras late Mon and continue through Wed night.
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold front may
approach the Yucatan Channel by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
the gale-force winds in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A nearly stationary front is noted from just S of Bermuda, along
29N, to near Melbourne, Florida. A weak pre-frontal trough is
noted from the NW Bahamas to near Miami, Florida. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted N of 25N and W of
70W, excluding areas just offshore the N Florida coast. W of 65W,
mainly moderate SE winds prevail, although just ahead of the
front, moderate SW winds dominate, with moderate NW winds
occurringbehind the front. Seas in this area are 4 to 6 ft,
except 2 to 4 ft near the coast of Florida and in the vicinity of
the Bahamas.

To the east, 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 29N48W. This
is leading to gentle anticyclonic flow between 40W and 65W, N of
24N. South of this ridge, moderate to fresh trades dominate the
Tropical Atlantic. Seas in these areas average 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, low pressure will move NE along the frontal
boundary today, exiting the area and reaching near Bermuda by this
evening. Behind the low, the front will begin to move east again
tonight, then gradually dissipate through Tue night. The next cold
front is likely to move off the SE U.S. coast Thu night.

$$
KONARIK
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