[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Apr 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 04N15W and 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from
02N17W, to the Equator along 22W, to 01S30W, 02S34W, and to
01S43W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 03N
to 05N between 13W and 17W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 06N from 20W westward. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the remainder of the area from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 31N71W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the
Florida coast near 26N80W, to 24N87W in the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
covers the water areas and the land areas from Atlantic Ocean
coast of Cuba to 28N between 77W in the Atlantic Ocean and 85W in
the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to broken multilayered clouds, and
possible rainshowers, are in the Gulf of Mexico from 22N to 29N.

Moderate easterly winds, and wave heights that range from 3 feet
to 4 feet, are to the north of the cold front. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds, and wave heights that range from 2 feet to 3
feet, are to the south of the cold front.

A weak cold front from near Naples, Florida to 24N88W will drift
SE and dissipate overnight. Southerly flow will return through the
basin after the boundary dissipates. The next cold front is
forecast to move off the Texas coast midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 700 mb shows a NW-to-SE oriented trough in the
coastal waters from SE Nicaragua, to Costa Rica, Panama, and
Colombia. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is within 125 nm of the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica
between 79W and 84W.

ENE to ESE trade winds continue in the basin. Gentle to moderate
winds, and wave heights that range from 3 feet to 4 feet, are in
the NW part of the basin. Fresh to strong trade winds, and wave
heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are in the south central
part of the area to the north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate
trade winds, and wave heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet,
cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of
Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the Gulf
of Honduras late Mon and continue into Thu. Moderate to fresh
winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold front may approach the
Yucatan Channel Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N71W, to the Florida coast near
26N80W, to 24N87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the water areas and
the land areas from Atlantic Ocean coast of Cuba to 28N between
77W in the Atlantic Ocean and 85W in the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
to broken multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are in
the Gulf of Mexico from 22N to 29N. Fresh to strong winds, and
wave heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are noted in the
SW N Atlantic Ocean. It is possible that some wave heights may be
reaching 8 feet near the comparatively fastest wind speeds.
Light winds, and wave heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet,
are in the areas of the surface anticyclonic wind flow.
Moderate to fresh winds, and wave heights that range from 6 feet
to 8 feet, are S of 23N in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean.

One eastern Atlantic Ocean surface trough starts at 30N12W, and
it continues to 22N20W 19N30W and 19N42W. A second surface trough
extends from a 1002 mb 30N14W low pressure center, to 25N20W and
23N30W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 16N northward
from 60W eastward. Clusters of clouds with possible rainshowers
are from 16N to 21N between 40W and 62W. These clouds are
associated with a remnant cloud line from a frontal boundary that
dissipated during the last few days. Strong NW winds, and wave
heights that range from 12 feet to 15 feet, are to the north of
the surface troughs. Fresh to locally strong SW winds, and wave
heights that range from 7 feet to 9 feet, are to the east of the
Canary Islands, and N of 23N between the Sahara/Morrocco coast
and 20W.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 29N42W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean between the
31N71W cold front and the two eastern Atlantic Ocean surface
troughs.

A cold front from 31N72W to near West Palm Beach, Florida will
move E and gradually dissipate into Tue night. The next cold front
will move off the SE U.S. coast Thu night.

$$
MT/SK
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