[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Nicholas Local Statement Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX  AL142021
413 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

This product covers Southeast Texas

**NICHOLAS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL TEXAS
COAST**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Bolivar Peninsula, Chambers, Coastal Galveston, Coastal
      Harris, and Galveston Island
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Fort Bend, Inland
      Brazoria, Inland Galveston, Inland Harris, Northern Liberty,
      Southern Liberty, and Wharton
    - A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Brazoria Islands, Coastal Brazoria,
      Coastal Jackson, Coastal Matagorda, and Matagorda Islands
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Austin, Colorado, and
      Waller
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Inland Jackson and Inland Matagorda

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 160 miles southwest of Galveston TX or about 120 miles
      south-southwest of Freeport TX
    - 27.4N 96.4W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

After its center reformed slightly further east this afternoon,
Tropical Storm Nicholas continues to track north-northeastward toward
the Central Texas Coast. It is expected to continue this
motion as it approaches the Texas coast over the next 12-24 hours,
with modest continued strengthening. It is currently forecast to make
landfall along the middle Texas coast as a tropical storm tonight.
Despite the center reforming slightly, the new track has not
prompted any additional counties to be included in watches or warnings.
Sustained winds, or frequent gusts to around 65 mph or higher
are expected in the warning area, with the strongest winds expected at
the coast.

This system has the potential to bring widespread and significant
heavy rainfall to portions of Southeast Texas, particularly along the
coast. Rainfall amounts in excess of 6-12 inches with isolated higher
totals are expected through the end of the day on Tuesday in some
locations. Rather than fall in an even distribution, heavy rainfall
will put down significant totals in relatively short periods, which
enhances the threat of flash flooding. Where the rainfall threat is
highest, a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. Additionally, 2-5 feet
of storm surge is expected as the system approaches the coastline.
This will result in areas of coastal flooding, particularly during
high tide. A storm surge warning remains in effect along our entire
coastline from Port O'Connor to High Island.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across the Southeast Texas Coastal Plain. Potential
impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
      systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
limited to extensive impacts across inland Southeast Texas.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts along the Southeast Texas Coast. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Elsewhere across Southeast Texas, little to no impact is anticipated.

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
the Southeast Texas Gulf Coast. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across inland Southeast Texas.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
the Southeast Texas Coastal Plain. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across Southeast Texas, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!
Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Houston/Galveston TX around 1030 PM CDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$

KBL
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