[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Nicholas Local Statement Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX  AL142021
422 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

This product covers Southeast Texas

**NICHOLAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge
      Warning and the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a
      Tropical Storm Warning for Brazoria Islands and Coastal Brazoria
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Inland Brazoria
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Watch
      and the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical
      Storm Warning for Inland Jackson and Inland Matagorda
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Austin, Colorado,
      Fort Bend, Inland Harris, Waller, and Wharton
    - The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge
      Warning, the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a
      Hurricane Watch, and the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded
      to a Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Jackson, Coastal
      Matagorda, and Matagorda Islands

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Brazoria Islands and Coastal Brazoria
    - A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Coastal Jackson, Coastal Matagorda, and
      Matagorda Islands
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Bolivar Peninsula, Chambers, Coastal Galveston, Coastal Harris,
      and Galveston Island
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Austin, Colorado, Fort
      Bend, Inland Galveston, Inland Harris, Southern Liberty,
      Waller, and Wharton
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Brazoria
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Inland Jackson and Inland Matagorda

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 450 miles south of Galveston TX or about 420 miles south
      of Freeport TX
    - 22.8N 95.5W
    - Storm Intensity 40 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Nicholas continues to track north-northwestward
in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to continue
this motion as it approaches the Texas coast over the next 12-24
hours. Further strengthening is expected. It is currently forecast
to make landfall along the middle Texas coast as a tropical storm
late Monday night, though possible intensification to hurricane
status is not out of the question. As a result, a Hurricane Watch
is now in effect from Port Aransas to Sargent. A Tropical Storm
Warning is now in effect for these areas. The Tropical Storm Watch
has been expanded inland as confidence has increased in stronger
winds impacting these locations.

This system has the potential to bring widespread and significant
heavy rainfall to portions of Southeast Texas, particularly along the
coast. Rainfall amounts in excess of 10-15 inches with isolated
higher totals are expected through the end of the day on Tuesday in
some locations. This will result in flash flooding. A Flash Flood
Watch is now in effect along and south of the I-10 corridor.
Additionally, a Storm Surge Watch is now in effect along the SE Texas
Coast. 2-4 feet of storm surge is expected as the system approaches
the coastline early on Tuesday. This will result in areas of coastal
flooding, particularly during high tide. Gusty winds in excess of
50 mph will be possible along the coast as the storm
approaches early on Tuesday, especially around Matagorda Bay.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across SE TX, particularly along the coast. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to
significant impacts across areas further inland.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts along the SE Texas coast. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Elsewhere across Southeast Texas, little to no impact is anticipated.

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts along
the SE Texas Coast. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across areas further inland.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts around
Matagorda Bay. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across Southeast Texas, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others!

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Houston/Galveston TX around 1030 PM CDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
Cady/KBL
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