[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Oct 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers continue to show some signs of organization near a strong,
frontal low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
Cape Race, Newfoundland. This nontropical low is likely to lose
its associated fronts while it moves southeastward toward slightly
warmer waters during the next day or two, and it could make a
transition to a subtropical storm this weekend or early next week
over the central Atlantic. There is a medium chance of development for
this system.

For more detail information, please read the latest Tropical
Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane center at this
website: http://nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays+2
The High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane and
Ocean Prediction Centers can be found at this website:
http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W from 16N southward and
moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
11N to 15N between 27W and 31W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits the Senegal coast near 14N17W then curves
west-southwestward through a 1011 mb low pressure near 07N33W to
06N38W. The ITCZ continues from 06N38W to 07N51W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen up to 180 nm N of the monsoon trough
between the Senegal coast and 26W. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is present S of the monsoon trough up to 290 nm
between the Guinea coast and 26W. Farther W, scattered moderate
convection is found near the low from 04N to 09N between 31W and
35W.

The eastern end of the E Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Costa Rica,
Panama, N Colombia and adjacent Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough reaches southwestward from Georgi-Florida border
to the E central Gulf. Patchy showers are seen across the NE and E
central Gulf, including central Florida. Satellite scatterometer
data indicate W to NW winds across the N central and NE Gulf have
decreased below gale force earlier this evening. Nevertheless,
strong low pressure systems near the Great Lakes and Northeast
U.S. continue to enhance fresh to strong with locally near-gale W
to NW winds N of 22N between the Florida coast and 94W. Seas in
this area are gradually subsiding but still in the range of 12 to
18 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are
present in the NW, S central and SE Gulf, including the Yucatan
Channel. For the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche, a ridge of high
pressure provides gentle to moderate NNW winds with seas at 4 to 6
ft.

For the forecast, in the wake of a cold front, strong W-NW winds
encompass the basin north of 23N, with moderate to fresh winds
elsewhere. Seas of 12 ft or greater north of 22N and east of 94W
will gradually subside to below 8 ft by Sun. Fairly tranquil
marine conditions are then forecast for the end of the weekend
into next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southern portion of a cold front extends southwestward from
near central Cuba to N Honduras. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found near and up to 180 nm SE of the front
across central Cuba and the Caribbean waters. Numerous heavy
showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring over N and W
Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the basin. Latest satellite scatterometer and model
data show moderate to fresh with locally strong NW to N winds with
seas at 7 to 10 ft, behind the cold front over the NW corner of
the Caribbean basin N of 18N. S of 18N including the Gulf of
Honduras, moderate NW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident.
For the rest of the W Caribbean Basin from the cold front eastward
to 74W, gentle SE to S winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft are present.
Gentle to moderate E to ESE trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail
for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will move through the rest of
the NW Caribbean this weekend, before stalling Sun night from
E Cuba to offshore of Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh NW winds and
seas up to 12 ft can be expected in the wake of the cold front,
especially in and near the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, a weak
ridge over the northern Caribbean Sea ahead of the front will
support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin,
with locally fresh winds off the coast of Venezuela.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends south-southwestward from E of N Carolina
across 31N72W and the NW Bahamas through the N coast of central
Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near
and up to 100 nm SE of the front across the Bahamas and Atlantic
waters. Farther E at the central Atlantic, the southwestern end of
another cold front is triggering scattered moderate convection N
of 26N between 46W and 56W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the
basin.

Moderate to fresh SW to WSW winds with seas of 6 to 10 ft are seen
between the cold front and Georgia-Florida coast, including the NW
Bahamas. From the cold front eastward to 69W, gentle to moderate
SSW winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are found N of 24N. Moderate to
fresh WSW to WNW winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are evident near the
second cold front N of 27N between 43W and 61W. Otherwise, light
to gentle winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the central
Atlantic N of 21N between NW African coast and 67W. Moderate to
fresh NE trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft exist from 11N to 21N
between the Mauritania-Senegal coast and 34W. Light to gentle NE
to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft are found from 03N to 21N
between 34W and the Lesser Antilles/S American coast. Gentle to
moderate with locally fresh S to SW monsoonal winds with seas at 4
to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, the first cold front will move slowly
east and reach Bermuda to the N and E Cuba to the S by the end of
this weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected on both sides of
the front through Sat night, mainly N of 27N. Seas of 8 ft or
greater will continue to fill in across the northern waters
tonight, then linger through Sun before subsiding. The front will
weaken as it stretches from 30N65W to the Turks and Caicos
Islands Mon with gentle to moderate NE flow then prevailing into
midweek.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. A volcanic
ash cloud is slowly drifting south. High volcanic ash concentration
remains in the vicinity of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests
should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash
Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$

Chan
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