[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Oct 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong to gale force W to NW winds
will continue over the northern Gulf of Mexico through today,
especially from 27N to 29N, between 85W and 92W. Winds will
diminish below gale force this evening, then gradually diminish
to less than 15 kt by late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.
Wave heights of 15 to 22 ft are expected to continue over portions
of the Gulf in W to NW swell, subsiding to 10 to 17 ft after
midnight. The large NW swell will spread southeast, gradually
decaying through the weekend. Please see the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 30W from 04N to
16N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Most of the convection near the wave
is associated to an area of low pressure located near 07N31W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Guinea and
Guinea-Bissau near 10N15W to 07N29W to a 1011 mb low pressure
near 07N31W to 06N38W. The ITCZ continues from 06N38W to 06N53W.
A large area of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 00N to 18N between 15W and 28W, and near the low
pressure from 04N to 09N between 31W to 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on the
forecast for the gale force winds and dangerous seas across the
northern Gulf of Mexico.

Strong low pressure over the eastern U.S. is enhancing strong
NW winds across the Gulf of Mexico behind the cold front. Gale
force winds are still occurring in the northern Gulf. The latest
ASCAT pass shows near gale to gale force winds covering the area
from 26N to 30N between 84.5W and 94W. An oil platform KGBK near
27.2N 92.2W measured winds of 34 kt gusting to 42 kt at a height
of 58 meters at 1515 UTC. Winds over 25 kt and seas over 13 ft
are mainly confined to areas north of 24N. The quietest
conditions in the basin are currently found in the south-central
Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf of Mexico, where moderate N winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the strong NW gale force winds over portions
of the north-central and NE basin will end early this evening,
but strong winds will prevail through tonight. Seas of 12 ft or
greater will impact most of the basin through tonight, then
gradually subside to below 8 ft by Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from western Cuba near Isla
Juventud to Guatemala near 15N88W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 30 nm along the front. The latest ASCAT pass
shows fresh to strong N-NW winds to the west of the cold front,
especially over the western Gulf of Honduras and areas along the
coast, south of Cozumel. Seas are quickly building in the Yucatan
Channel behind the cold front. Seas in the Yucatan Channel are
forecast to peak tonight in the 10 to 14 ft range in NW swell,
before gradually subsiding to below 8 ft by Sunday afternoon.

Elsewhere, scattered moderate thunderstorms are seen along the
coast of Nicaragua, eastern Honduras and northern Colombia. The
east Pacific monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia
westward into Costa Rica is enhancing scattered moderate to
strong convection offshore eastern Panama and NW Colombia.
Isolated moderate convection is also seen in the south-central
Caribbean, south of 14N and west of 67W. Moderate trades cover
most of the basin east of 82W, except for fresh in the south-
central Caribbean, south of 16N between 67W-74W, while gentle
winds prevail in the far SW basin. Most of the eastern and
central Caribbean is currently experiencing seas of 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will move through the NW
Caribbean this weekend, before stalling Sun night from eastern
Cuba to offshore Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas
of up to 12 ft can be expected in the wake of the cold front,
especially in and near the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, a weak
ridge over the northern Caribbean Sea ahead of the front will
support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin,
with locally fresh winds off the coast of Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from 30N73W to the northern
Bahamas to the coast of Cuba near 23N80W to Guatemala. A line of
strong thunderstorms is ahead of the front, and extends from
31N72W to 24.5N79W as of 1700 UTC. The latest ASCAT pass shows
fresh to strong winds on both sides of the front, covering the
area north of 24N and west of 71W. Wave heights of 7 to 10 ft
cover the area to the north of the Bahamas.

In the eastern and central Atlantic, a surface ridge extends from
a 1020 mb high pressure near 28N23W to a 1016 mb high pressure
near 23N50W to the Greater Antilles. Light to gentle winds are
within a couple hundred nm of the surface ridge axis. A cold
front extends from 31N50W to 29N56W. Isolated moderate
thunderstorms are well southeast of the front. Fresh to strong SW
winds are occurring east of the front, mainly north of 28.5N.
Seas of 8 to 12 ft, mainly in NW to N swell, are occurring north
of 26N and west of 44W. The swell is emanating from a gale force
983 mb low, well north of the area. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail
elsewhere. Across the tropical latitudes, gentle to moderate
trades prevail, except for fresh to strong NE winds east of 35W
from 12N to 20N.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will move slowly east
and reach South Florida will move slowly east and reach a Bermuda
to eastern Cuba line by the end of the weekend. Fresh to strong
winds are expected on both sides of the front through Sat night,
mainly north of 27N. Seas of 8 ft or greater will continue to
fill in across the northern waters tonight, then linger through
Sun before decaying. The front will weaken as it stretches from
30N65W to the Turks and Caicos Islands Mon with gentle to
moderate NE flow then prevailing into mid-week.

For the forecast east of 65W, the cold front from 31N54W to
29N58W will reach from 31N40W to 27N47W early Sun, before slowing
down and becoming nearly stationary through early next week.
Fresh to strong SW winds will continue ahead of the front through
early next week, with seas of 8 to 11 ft in the region.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. A volcanic ash
cloud is slowly drifting southwest. High volcanic ash
concentration remains in the vicinity of the volcano. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Torres
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