[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300928
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Oct 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers continue to show some signs of organization near a strong,
frontal low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
Cape Race, Newfoundland. This non-tropical low is likely to lose
its associated fronts while it moves southeastward toward slightly
warmer waters during the next day or two, and it could make a
transition to a subtropical storm this weekend or early next week
over the central Atlantic. There is a medium chance of
development for this system. For more detail information, please
read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National
Hurricane center at this website:
http://nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays+2 The High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane and Ocean Prediction
Centers can be found at this website:
http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W from 17N southward and
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 11N to 15N between 27W and 30W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits the Senegal coast near 14N17W to 1011 mb
low pressure near 08N31W to 07N38W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 15N between 12W
and 27W.

The eastern end of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends
across Costa Rica to 1012 mb low pressure north of Colombia near
14N76W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
southeast of the monsoon trough to the coast of Colombia, as well
as from 11N to 15N between 69W and 76W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough reinforcing the strong cold front that moved
through the basin during the past couple of days reaches from near
Tampa Bay, Florida to 24N75W. Scattered showers are seen from the
central and north-central Gulf to the eastern Gulf including
across portions of the Florida Peninsula. Satellite scatterometer
data indicated fresh to strong W-NW winds north of 22N and 94W,
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere, except light to gentle
offshore of Veracruz, Mexico to the western Bay of Campeche under
a ridge axis. Large seas in W-NW swell of 8 to 18 ft remain north
of 21N and east of 95W, with 5 to 8 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds north of 22N and east of
94W will diminish through the day. Large NW swell will gradually
subside to below 8 ft by Sun. Fairly tranquil marine conditions
are then forecast for the end of the weekend into next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A slow moving cold front extends from central Cuba to across the
NW Caribbean to the north-central coast of Honduras. Convection
has sparked overnight with scattered showers and thunderstorms
along and within 60 nm ahead of the front including across central
Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds
continue west of the front, along with 5 to 8 ft seas, except 8 to
12 ft near the Yucatan Channel. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the basin. Moderate to
locally fresh trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail across the
eastern Caribbean to 73W, with light and variable winds and seas
of 2 to 4 ft west of 73W to the front.

For the forecast, the slow moving cold front will move through
the NW Caribbean this weekend, before stalling Sun night from
eastern Cuba to offshore Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh NW winds and
seas of up to 12 ft can be expected in the wake of the cold
front, especially in and near the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, a
weak ridge over the northern Caribbean Sea ahead of the front will
support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin,
with locally fresh winds off the coast of Venezuela.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slow moving cold front extends from 31N72W to across the
central Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are firing within 60 nm either side of the front.
Moderate to fresh S-SW winds prevail ahead of the front to 68W as
well as west of the front where a more defined wind shift is
expected later behind a reinforcing trough which is currently
moving into the area off the eastern coast of Florida. Another
cold front extends from 31N49W to 27N55W to 25N63W with scattered
showers and thunderstorms within 120 nm east-southeast of the
front. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections for additional convection in the basin. Moderate to
fresh winds are within 300 nm either side of this front north of
25N. Seas are 7 to 10 ft north of 26N and west of 40W. 1015 mb
high pressure is near 23N56W with a ridge extending westward along
23N, and east-northeast to 1018 mb high pressure west of the
Canary Islands near 29N23W. Moderate to fresh trades prevail south
of 25N between the coast of Africa and 35W, with light to gentle
winds elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the slow moving cold front will
move slowly east and reach a Bermuda to eastern Cuba line by the
end of the weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected on both
sides of the front through tonight, mainly north of 27N. Seas of 8
ft or greater will continue to fill in across the northern
waters, lingering through Sun before decaying. The front will
weaken as it stretches from 30N65W to the Turks and Caicos Islands
Mon with gentle to moderate NE flow then prevailing into mid-
week.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. A volcanic
ash cloud is slowly drifting south. High volcanic ash concentration
remains in the vicinity of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests
should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash
Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at this website:
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Lewitsky
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