[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060619
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Oct 06 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along a NNW-to-SSE line,
between 20W and 22W, from 18N southward,
moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 12N to 18N between 20W and 24W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W, from 19N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and widely
scattered strong is from the ITCZ to 14N between 36W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W, from 16N southward,
moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and Central America within
480 nm to the west of the 78W tropical wave. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas
that are from 70W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from
06N17W, to 04N19W, 02N28W, 04N32W 06N44W, and to 06N56W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
elsewhere from 13N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from the
coast of west central Florida to the NW coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. A stationary front extends from a 1012 mb coastal
Mississippi low pressure center, to the north central Gulf of
Mexico, to the SW corner of the area at the coast of Mexico near
20N97W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm on
either side of the line that runs from NE Florida near 30N81W,
to 25N90W, to 20N97W at the coast of Mexico.

Moderate wind speeds cover the area. The sea heights range from
2 feet to 4 feet.

A weak ridge NE of the Gulf will weaken over the region through
the end of the week, supporting tranquil conditions across the
basin. A weak cold front from coastal Mississippi to the Bay of
Campeche along 94.5W will drift E overnight before stalling then
dissipating Wed through Thu. Expect gentle to moderate northerly
wind west of the front through Thu except fresh along the coast
near Veracruz.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 78W, from 16N southward, moving
westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the Caribbean Sea and Central America within 480 nm
to the west of the 78W tropical wave. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas that are
from 70W westward.

The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon
trough is along 09N/10N, between 74W in Colombia, beyond Costa
Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
numerous strong covers the areas of northern Colombia, from 08N
to 10N between the border with Venezuela and 76W.
Earlier numerous strong, that was covering the areas that are
from 10N to 13N between 73W and 78W, now is widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong.

Strong winds are from 18N southward between 63W and 75W.
Moderate to fresh winds cover the rest of the area that is from
82W eastward. Gentle wind speeds, or slower, are elsewhere. The
sea heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet between the Mona Passage
and 80W. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere.

High pressure, currently just E of Bermuda, will slide slowly
ENE through Wed, before winds diminish E of 67W Wed night and
Thu. Moderate N to NE swell from Sam will affect the tropical
Atlc waters through Wed night. Winds and seas will diminish
significantly early Fri through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are
from 20N northward between 63W and 80W. A surface trough curves
along 33N71W 28N76W, to the coast of Cuba near 23N79W on the
Atlantic Ocean side of Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the east of the
surface trough from 26N to 30N.  Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere from 20N northward
from 60W westward. Upper level winds are expected to remain
unfavorable for significant tropical development of this system,
while it moves slowly northwestward or northward during the next
few days. The system is forecast to interact with a front, near
the coast of the southeastern United States around that time,
and tropical development still appears unlikely. It is possible
that the upper level winds may become a little less hostile
by the weekend.

A surface trough is between 52W and 54W, from 15N to 26N. This
is the remnant of Victor, that weakened and dissipated on 04
October at 1500 UTC. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 22N to 28N between 45W and 56W.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in
the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September at 1410
UTC. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going
situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory, that is issued
by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

Strong winds are within 150 nm on either side of the line that
runs from 26N15W to 19N22W to 17N31W, from 10N to 19N between
36W and 45W, and in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean
from 17N to 23N between 63W and 73W. Moderate to fresh winds
cover the areas that are from 07N northward. Gentle wind speeds,
or slower, are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 8 feet to
10 feet from 20N northward between 40W and 50W, and from 20N to
28N between 50W and 65W. The sea heights range from
6 feet to 8 feet: elsewhere from 65W westward, from 10N to 20N
between 30W and 60W, and from 13N northward from 30W eastward.
The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet: from 10N southward
between 30W and 60W, and from 13N southward from 30W eastward.

High pressure just E of Bermuda will slide slowly ENE through
Thu. This will produce moderate to fresh trade winds south of
25N and east of 74W through Tue night before spreading into the
southeast and central Bahamas Wed and Thu. The swell generated
from Sam will continue to impact the SW N Atlantic including the
Bahamas through Wed night. Active weather is expected to
continue through Wed across the waters north of the Bahamas, as
surface trough currently along 76.5W moves northwest during the
next few days.

$$
mt
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