[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Oct 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W, from 18N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered light convection prevails
across the waters between the Cabo Verde Islands and the W coast
of Africa. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within
60 nm either side of monsoon trough and ITCZ E of 28W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W, from 19N southward,
moving west from 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate widely
scattered strong convection is from 05N to 14N between 40W and
52W. Satellite imagery suggest SAL accompanies this wave, north of
14N to 25N between 55W and 30W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W, from 18N southward,
moving west near 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong convection
covers the area from 14N to 20N between 77W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N16W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from
05N18W to 03N22W to 02N28W to 06N47W to coastal Suriname near
5.5N56W. scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere
from 03N to 11N between 28W and 40W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is south of 12N between 52W and 58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from coastal Mississippi to the Bay of
Campeche along 94.5W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen
within 180 nm SE of the front, and covers coastal zones across the
Florida Big Bend and the Bay of Campeche. A weak high pressure
ridge behind the front and across NE Mexico is promoting gentle to
moderate northerly winds behind the front, except for fresh winds
across the Veracruz area, where peak seas are 5 ft. Elsewhere E
of 88W gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail, with seas 2 to 4
ft.

The stationary front will meander through Thu before dissipating.
Weak high pressure to the NW will promote gentle to moderate
northerly winds W of trough through Thu, except fresh along the
coast near Veracruz. High pressure will build modestly across the
basin during the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic across the
SE Bahamas to Belize, and is supporting the active convection
described with the tropical wave along 80W. South of 12N,
scattered strong convection is seen across NW Colombia westward to
eastern Costa Rica and southward into the adjacent Pacific. Fresh
to strong trade winds are directly behind the tropical wave and
extend to 67W. These winds have generated seas of 7 to 9 ft across
much of the central Caribbean. Fresh tradewinds prevail E of 67W
and into the tropical Atlantic. Seas across the eastern Caribbean
are 6 to 7 ft and 8 to 10 ft across the tropical Atlantic in N and
NE swell.

The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough
extends from 10N74W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica along 09.5N.

High pressure currently just NE of Bermuda, will slide ENE
throughout the week supporting fresh to strong winds across the
central Caribbean through Thu. Winds and seas will then diminish
significantly early Fri through Sun as a surface trough moves W
across the regional Atlantic waters. Moderate N to NE swell from
Sam will affect the tropical Atlc waters and Caribbean passages
through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad middle to upper level level trough extends from near
Bermuda SW through the SE Bahamas and across the NW Caribbean.
An associated surface trough has developed in the past 24 hours
and extends from 31N73W through the central Bahamas and is moving
slowly NW. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen within
180 nm to the SE of this trough N of 27N. 1025 mb high pressure is
centered just NE of Bermuda and extends SSW to Hispaniola. This is
producing a tight pressure gradient to the E of the trough across
the Bahamas and is producing fresh tradewinds S of 23N between 60W
and 75W. Seas across this area are 8 to 10 ft in NE swell.

To the east a surface trough is along 55W-56W from 18N to 25N, and
is the surface remnants of Victor. Moderate winds prevail on
either side of the trough for 300 nm. Moderate to fresh trade
winds prevail elsewhere across the eastern tropical Atlantic E of
48W to the Cabo Verde Islands, to the south of 23N. Saharan air is
seen dominated this zone north of 14N between the African coast
and the tropical wave along 48W. Large NW to N swell generated by
Sam is moving through the waters E of 60W, producing seas of 7 to
10 ft.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in
the Canary Islands, has been erupting almost continuously since
19 September at 1410 UTC. Marine and aviation interests should
monitor this on-going situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash
Advisory, that is issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la- palma/.

The high pressure NE of Bermuda will slide ENE throughout the
week supporting fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean
through Thu. Winds and seas will then diminish significantly
early Fri through Sun as the trough currently along 55W-56W shifts
westward across the region and weakens. Moderate N to NE swell
from Sam will gradually fade across the tropical Atlc waters
through Wed night.

$$
Stripling
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