[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Oct 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W from 19N southward,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 10N between 40W and 45W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W from 17N southward
into the E Pacific, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 18N between 74W
and 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 04N24W to 07N41W. It resumes from
05N45W to 09N58W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical
waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N
to 14N between 17W and 25W, from 07N to 10N between 30W and 40W,
and from 07N to 10N between 45W and 58W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the coast of Alabama to low pres
of 1013 mb near 27N90W to near Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm
east of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are noted west of the
front, with light to gentle winds east of the front. Seas are in
the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, a weak ridge north of the Gulf will remain
over the region through the end of the week, supporting tranquil
conditions across the basin. A weak cold front over the NW Gulf
will move slowly SE across the Gulf before stalling from the N
central Gulf to central Bay of Campeche Wed then dissipating Thu.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 32N60W to
Hispaniola. The pressure gradeint between this ridge and
climatological low pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to
strong trades over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail over the eastern Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range
over the eastern and central Caribbean, except for the far
eastern Caribbean where seas are in the 6-7 ft range. Over the
western Caribbean, seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure currently E of Bermuda will move
further east through Wed. This will continue to produce fresh to
strong trade winds across the NE Caribbean and central Caribbean
through Thu. Moderate N to NE swell from Sam will affect the
tropical Atlc waters through Wed night. Winds and seas will
diminish significantly by Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas.
Fresh to strong winds and scattered moderate convection is with
300 nm east of the trough. Another surface trough extends from
28N46W to 18N52W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm
of the trough. Fresh to strong winds prevail north of Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico, with moderate to fresh winds prevailing
elsewhere across the discussion waters. Seas are in the 7-10 ft
range across much of the discussion waters, except west of 70W
where seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters and 1-3
ft west of the Bahamas.

For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure just E of Bermuda will
slide slowly eastward through mid week. This will produce
moderate to fresh trade winds south of 25N and east of 74W
through Tue night before spreading into the southeast Bahamas
Wed. The swell generated from Sam will continue to impact the SW
N Atlantic including the Bahamas through Wed night. Active
weather is expected to continue through Wed across the waters
north of the Bahamas, as surface trough moves northwest in the
next few days.

$$
AL
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