[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Oct 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W from 19N southward and
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 06N to 11N between 38W and 43W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from 17N southward across
the Costa Rico and W Panama into the E Pacific, and moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Aided by divergent winds aloft, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are occurring over the central basin, including
Jamaica, SE Cuba and near the Colombia-Panama border; and also the
SW basin along the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends across the Senegal coast to just E of the
Cabo Verde Island at 15N20W. Farther S, the ITCZ meanders from
05N17W to 08N40W, and then from 07N42W to 10N59W, N of the
Venezuela-Guyana. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the
monsoon trough from 11N to 17N between the Senegal coast and 22W.
Similar conditions are also present near the first ITCZ from 02N
to 07N between 14W and 26W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is found up to 80 nm from both sides of the second
ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A modest stationary front curves southwestward from E Alabama
through a 1013 mb low pressure center over the N central Gulf near
27N90W to central Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
evident from the Florida Panhandle southwestward across the
central Gulf to the W Bay of Campeche. Locally moderate to fresh
winds and seas up to 4 ft are possible near these showers and
thunderstorms, and over the NW Gulf. Otherwise, surface ridging
from central Florida southwestward to the E Bay of Campeche is
promoting gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft across
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak ridge N of the Gulf along 30N will move
eastward through Wed, supporting tranquil conditions across the
basin. The stationary front will persist from the N central Gulf
to central Bay of Campeche through Wed then dissipate Thu. Fresh
to occasionally strong northerly winds will develop within 60 nm
of the coast of Veracruz tonight through Wed, with seas there
building to between 4 and 5 ft.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the basin.
Tight gradient between the Bermuda high and E Pacific monsoon
trough near Panama and Colombia is generating fresh to locally
strong trade winds with seas of 7 to 10 ft over the central
basin. Moderate to fresh trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist across
the E basin. Gentle to locally moderate trades and seas of 2 to 4
ft prevail over the W basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda high will gradually slide eastward
through the middle of the week. This pattern will produce fresh to
strong trade winds across the NE and central Caribbean through
Tue night, then mainly the central Caribbean through Thu.
Moderate N to NE swell from distant Post-tropical Cyclone Sam
will linger in the waters adjacent to Puerto Rico and the Virgin
and Leeward Islands through Wed night. Winds and seas will
diminish significantly by Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A robust upper-level trough extends from W Cuba northeastward
across the central Bahamas to near Bermuda. Together with an
associated surface trough in the vicinity, scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue to flare up from just N of the central and
SE Bahamas northeastward to near Bermuda. Farther E, the remnants
of Victor in the form of a surface trough near 23N50W is producing
similar conditions from 22N to 26N between 46W and 53W. Moderate
to fresh winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft are present near these
showers and thunderstorms produced by both features. Refer to the
Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in
the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September at 1410
UTC. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going
situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory, that is issued
by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

Residual swells generated by distant Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam E
of Newfoundland are keeping seas at 9 to 11 ft N of 26N between
35W and 50W. Otherwise N of 26N, light to gentle winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft dominate between 22W and 35W, and between 50W and 67W.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE winds and seas at 7 to 11
ft exist N of 15N between the African coast and 38W, including
waters near the Cabo Verde and Canary Islands. Gentle E to ESE
winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen across the Bahamas and off
the Florida-George coast. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5
to 8 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 45W, high pressure just E of Bermuda will
slide slowly eastward through mid week. This will produce moderate
to fresh trade winds S of 25N and E of 74W through Tue before
spreading into the southeast Bahamas Wed. The swell generated from
Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam will continue to impact the SW N
Atlantic including the Bahamas through Wed night. Active weather
is expected to continue through Wed across the waters within 300
nm E of a surface trough from the SE Bahamas to 30N70W, as the
trough shifts NW.

$$

Chan
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