[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along
08N13W at the coastal plains of Sierra Leone, to 05N18W, to and
04N26W. One surface trough is along 29W/30W from 03N to 10N. A
second surface trough is along 40W/41W from 06N southward.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 10N southward from 48W eastward. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere, from 15N southward between 50W and
60W, and from 10N southward from 50W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf
of Mexico.

A surface ridge passes through southern Georgia, to the coast of
Mexico near 21N97W.

Mostly fresh winds cover the Gulf of Mexico. A small area of
strong winds is within 120 nm to the north of NW Cuba. Moderate
to fresh winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 5 feet
to 7 feet from 90W eastward, and from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere.

Fresh S winds are expected in the NW Gulf and fresh E winds in
the Florida Straits will prevail ahead of a cold front that will
move off the Texas coast Thu evening. By Fri evening, the front
will stretch from Fort Myers, Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico.
Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the
front over the western Gulf Thu night into Fri night with
near-gale force winds possible in the nearshore waters between
Tampico and Brownsville. Winds will become light to gentle on
Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the entire
Caribbean Sea, with a 10N ridge.

A cold front reaches Hispaniola, from the Atlantic Ocean. A
stationary front continues, from Hispaniola to 19N80W, and to
the SE coastal areas of Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 180 nm on either side of the stationary
front. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 15N
northward from 80W westward, and from 3 feet to 5 feet
elsewhere. Strong NE winds are within 125 nm to the north of the
stationary front between 81W and 83W. Moderate to fresh winds
are elsewhere from 15N northward from 80W westward, and to the
northwest of the line 15N80W 11N84W.  Moderate wind speeds, or
slower, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 10N from northern Colombia at 74W,
southwestward, beyond the border areas of Panama and Costa Rica.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120
nm on either side of the monsoon trough.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with areas of
broken low level clouds that are moving with the trade winds, in
the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

A stationary front extends from western Hispaniola to southern
Nicaragua. The front will dissipate gradually through the
remainder of the week. Fresh NE winds will prevail behind this
front, with some locally strong winds possible S of Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage tonight. Showers and thunderstorms
will increase over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico through Fri and
bring a potential for heavy rain. Moderate northerly swell will
affect the NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N Atlantic
waters Thu into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N52W to 23N66W, to Hispaniola. The
front becomes stationary from Hispaniola southwestward, to
Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 630 nm to the east of the cold front from 23N
northward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 360 nm to the
east and southeast of the rest of the cold front. Fresh to
strong winds or faster are to the north and northwest of the
cold front, and from 26N northward between 49W and 55W.
The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12 feet to the north and
northwest of the cold front. The sea heights range from 7 feet
to 10 feet in the area that is bounded by the 1007 mb low
pressure center, to 22N42W 22N50W 31N50W.  northward between 70W
and 80W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from 25N
northward between 45W and 70W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
15N northward from 40W eastward.  A 1007 mb low pressure center
is near 31N32W. A surface trough extends from the 1007 mb low
pressure center, to 24N33W and 16N36W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is from 23N northward
between the Canary Islands and 35W. The sea heights range from 7
feet to 10 feet in the area that is bounded by the 1007 mb low
pressure center, to 22N42W 22N50W 31N50W. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 6 feet, elsewhere, in the Atlantic Ocean.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

A cold front extends from 31N52W to the Dominican Republic. The
northern portion of this front will move east of the area, while
the southern part will stall from 19N to the Mona Passage into
the weekend. Fresh NE winds can be expected behind the front,
with some strong winds N of 28N through Thu. In the wake of the
front, high pressure will build in off the coast of Georgia and
northern Florida on Thu. The next cold front will push off the
NE Florida coast Fri and bring another round of strong winds
into Sat N of 29N.

$$
mt/ar
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net