[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ is near
the coast of Sierra Leone near 06N13W to 06N35W, then continues
from 05N39W to 04N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 04N-08N between 23W-34W, and between 40W to 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high is centered over Georgia/northern Florida with
gentle to moderate E winds in the E and central Gulf veering to S
winds in the W Gulf. A cold front is about to enter the NW Gulf.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the boundary near
the coast of Texas from Galveston to S Padre Island. Seas are
3-6 ft across the W Gulf and 3 to 4 ft in the E Gulf with no
significant deep convection occurring E of 93W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh S winds will prevail in the
NW Gulf and fresh E winds in the Florida Straits today. A cold
front will move off the Texas coast this afternoon. By Fri
evening, the front will stretch from Fort Myers, Florida, to
Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the
front over the western Gulf this evening through Fri. Northerly
near-gale force winds will be possible in the nearshore waters
between Tampico and Brownsville later tonight into Fri morning.
A low pressure will develop in the western Gulf along the front
which will bring fresh to locally strong winds across the
western and central Gulf on Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands westward, where it transitions to a dissipating
stationary front to Jamaica. NE Winds are fresh to strong
through the Windward Passage and south of central Cuba and
Hispaniola, where seas are 5-6 ft. Elsewhere the NE trades are
gentle to moderate with seas 2-4 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring south of 11N in the SW Caribbean
associated with the eastern N Pacific monsoon trough. Elsewhere
scattered showers are occurring within 60 NM of the frontal
boundary.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate Fri, with
fresh NE winds prevailing N and W of the boundary until then.
Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain will also
persist over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and adjacent waters during
this period. Moderate N swell will continue to move across NE
Caribbean passages and the Tropical North Atlantic into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N47W southwestward to the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Winds are SW moderate to fresh ahead of the front north
of 25N and are NW to N moderate to strong behind the front. Seas
are 8-13 ft behind the front in N swell. Buoy 41049 at 27N63W
measured significant wave heights of 13 ft at 1200 UTC with 11 s
period out of the NNW. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
in association with the front from 17N-25N between 45W-60W as
well as 23N-31N between 40W-50W. Farther east, NE to E winds are
fresh to strong between 25N-31N east of 25W in association with a
broad area of low pressure interacting with a stationary front
along 32N. Seas are 8-10 ft. Moderate convection is occuring
north of 26N east of 24W. Elsewhere winds are gentle to moderate
with seas 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will gradually stall
along 19N by Fri, then dissipate Fri night into Sat. Fresh N
winds can be expected N of the front into tonight, with winds
diminishing Fri as high pressure builds in off the coast of the
SE U.S. The next cold front will move off the NE Florida coast
Fri night, bringing strong W winds N of 29N Fri night into Sat.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Low
to medium ash concentration in the vicinity of the volcano. Low
elsewhere. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this
ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Torres
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